Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS ACRS NE TX AND EXTREME SE OK/SW AR PRODUCING SVRL
HAIL RPTS AND RADAR SHOWING INCREASING CELL ROTATIONS. MORNING HODOGRAPH
ANALYSIS REVEALED INCREASING HELICITY ADDING IN ADJUSTMENTS FOR INCREASED
WIND FIELDS. THIS PLUS RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES ETA WITH BEST SOLN. NGM
CONCENTRATED WX ALONG FNT AND THAT NOT THE CASE WITH FNT NR A PRX TO
DEQ LINE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING FNT INTO NW LA ON TUE MRNG.
SYSTEM LIKELY TO TRANSFORM FM A HAILER WITH MESOS TO MORE OF A WIND
EVENT AFT MIDNIGHT AS SPLIT JET FLOW MERGES AND LOSES EXTREME UPR
DIFFLUENCE. LATE EVE TO MIDNIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE HEART OF THE ACTION
WITH RUC AND ETA HAVING HELICITIES OVR 300 ACRS MUCH OF AREA WITH NGM
AND AVN STILL WELL OVR 200. FLOODING A THREAT WITH TRAINING CELLS AND
SOME BLINDING RAINFALL INDICATED BY AN ASOS RPT IN TXK OF .90 INCHES
IN 9 MINUTES! 850 MSTR INDICATES JUST A FEW HOURS OF WRAPAROUND EARLY
TUE BEHIND FNT FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLRG. MODELS AGREE ON TUE HIGH IN
PRE-FNTL EARLY MRNG. NGM HAS LESS PUSH WITH FNT HENCE WRMR TEMPS TUE
WITH MORE AGREEMENT AFTER 1ST PERIOD. COLD AIR STILL SHALLOW AS WITH
PREVIOUS FNTS THIS FALL WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY THU.

SHV 58/58/37/68  7500           MLU 64/67/42/65  6700

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    NEW BOSTON                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   BOWIE

0230 PM    NASH                      TX   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   BOWIE

0231 PM    4 E EMORY                 TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   WOOD

0250 PM    MANDEVILLE                AR   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   MILLER
.
0255 PM    1 S NEWSOME               TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CAMP

0300 PM    LEESBURG                  TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CAMP

0310 PM    HAWKINS                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   WOOD

0325 PM    3 W HOPE                  AR   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   HEMPSTEAD

0338 PM    DANGERFIELD               TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   MORRIS

0340 PM    DANGERFIELD               TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   MORRIS

0415 PM    LINDEN                    TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0415 PM    LINDEN                    TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   CASS
.
0425 PM    5 NE LINDEN               TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0430 PM    ATLANTA                   TX   70 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   CASS                           STRAIGHT LINE WINDS PRODUCED
                                          NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN
                                          THE CITY INCLUDING DOWNED
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES.

0436 PM    QUEEN CITY                TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0525 PM    RODESSA                   LA   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CADDO

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
713 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    ROSSTON                   AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   NEVADA

0542 PM    2 N CANFIELD              AR   WIND DAMAGE
10/21/96   LAFAYETTE                      TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN ALONG HWY 29

0545 PM    BRADLEY                   AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   LAFAYETTE

0554 PM    HARLETON                  TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   HARRISON
.
0559 PM    2 E JEFFERSON             TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   MARION                         HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH
                                          OF CADDO LAKE.

0615 PM    MAGNOLIA                  AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   COLUMBIA

0635 PM    LINDALE                   TX   1.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   SMITH

0635 PM    TYLER                     TX   73 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   SMITH                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS
                                          HWY 69 AND IN THE CITY.

0706 PM    GLADEWATER                TX   60` MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   GREGG

0707 PM    LIBERTY CITY              TX   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   GREGG

13