Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 PM CDT WED JUL 24 1996

SC FIELD FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP. TCU BUILDING ALL AROUND CWA IN
RESPONSE TO IMPRESSIVE MCS OUFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. ALL STABILITY PARAMETERS FROM 12Z RUN THIS MORNING WERE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FROM THE FIREWORKS PRODUCED FORM THE 12Z SHV RUN TUESDAY.
THIS WAS DUE MAINLY IN PART TO OVERWORKED AIR LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS
MCS. WITH SC DECK BREAKING UP...BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY. ALREADY INDICATING STRONG CELLS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CWA AS
WELL AS RIGHT OUT THE WINDOW TO THE EAST. LIKE ETA MODEL BEST IN ITS
HANDLING OF MCS CURRENT POSITION FROM ITS MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT. THETAE
AXIS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS PER ETA.

ADAP INDICATING STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA STRETCHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW LA.
LI`S AOB -10...NO CAP...INCREASING KI AND PW INDICATE ONCE AGAIN THE
POSSIBLITY TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. 6-HR QPF FROM 12Z ETA THIS MORNING OFF SAC
INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN LA TONIGHT SO LIKE THE 60 WE HAVE IN THEIR TONIGHT
WITH THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

VORT AXIS PER 12Z ETA REMAINS QUITE HEALTHY FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHWEST AR. GOOD UVV ACROSS THIS AREA AS
WELL ALONG WITH GOOD MEAN RH...ALL LEADING TO A BUMP UP OF SECOND
PERIOD POPS TO AROUND 50 FOR TOMORROW.

MOS TEMPS IN THE BALL PARK WITH RAINFALL CHANCE TONIGHT AS WELL AS
EXPECTED POPS TOMORROW SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. WIND FOR TONIGHT WOULD
LIKE TO BE WORDED VARIABLE AT 5 MPH EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDRIES EXPECTED AND IN RESULT
TO ONE LAST NIGHT PRODUCING A GUST TO 43 KTS AT THE SHV AIRPORT.
NO MORE TIME WITH STORMS STARTING TO POP.8..

SHV 72/92/74/94 6543     MLU 73/93/74/95 6643

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-250300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 PM CDT WED JUL 24 1996

CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR IN SHREVEPORT CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM NEAR HUGO OKLAHOMA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS TO NEAR ATHENS TEXAS. THE AIR MASS
OUT AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DUE LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A BOUNDARY ALSO EXISTS
IN THIS AREA TO FURTHER ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE OUT AT THE PRESENT
TIME. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDER-
STORMS...ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

BERRY