Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
148 PM CST TUE FEB 27 1996

ONCE AGN MODELS MNTNG BULK OF UPR LVL DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH ACRS THE MID
MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS. BEST JET DYNAMICS ALSO TO THE N WITH THE EXCPTN
OF AN AREA OF UPR LVL DIV ACRS NRN TX AND SRN AR THIS EVNG AS FCST BY NGM
WHILE ETA CONFINES THIS AREA TO MAINLY CNTRL AR. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
PSHG CDFNT THRU MOST OF FA BY 06Z TONITE AND DVLPG GUD CAA BHD FNT...
I.E. DCRSG THCKNS. MY CONCERN IS CLRG BHD FNT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DRY LOWER
LVLS BHD THE FNT AND DCRS MEAN RHS UP TO H500 AS WELL...THE FLOW AT H500
H250 CONTS FROM THE WSW THRU THE FCST PRD. THIS WUD INDCT A BTR CHC AT
RMNG CLDY TO MC THRU AT LEAST THUR MRNG AS SUBTRPCL MSTR CONTS TO BE DRAWN
NWD INTO THE S CNTRL U.S.

IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES BHD FNT ARE FALLING RATHER DRAMATICALLY ACRS
OK AND TX. AT 18Z TXK HAD A TEMP AND DWPT OF 77/65 WHILE TO THE W PRX WAS
53/50. FNT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS E AS UPR LVL WNDS BVM ALIGNED MORE
PARALLEL TO THE SFC FTR...BUT THERE IS ENUF OF A PUSH TO BLV THE FNT WILL
PUSH THRU AS PROGGED TONITE. AHD AND ALG FNT TSTMS CONT TO MOVE TO THE ENE
PRODCG PRIMARILY HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WNDS. LACK OF SIG DIRECTONAL SHEAR
IS LMTG POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DVLPMNT BUT AS STORMS CONT PSHG E
INTO JUICY AIR POT FOR HAIL SHUD CONT THRU THE EVNG.

AM RELUCTANT TO BLV FAN GUIDANCE THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD
MOS EVEN THOUGH FEEL HIGH TMRW WILL HA0VE TO ADJUSTED DOWN. POPS DCRSG THRU
THE FCST PRD FROM W TO E.

SHV 43/52/33/49 7100

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
147 PM CST THU FEB 27 1996

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

1147 AM    IDABEL                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
02/27/96   MCCURTAIN                      LARGE MARBLE SIZE HAIL 2
                                          MILES EAST OF IDABEL ON
                                          HIGHWAY 3.

0110 PM    NASHVILLE                 AR   .75 INCH HAIL
02/27/96   HOWARD                         PEA TO LARGE MARBLE SIZE
                                          HAIL IN AND NORTH OF
                                          NASHVILLE.

VIII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SHREVEPORT LA
147 PM CST THU FEB 27 1996

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH LOCATION....

1147 AM    IDABEL                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
02/27/96   MCCURTAIN                      LARGE MARBLE SIZE HAIL 2
                                          MILES EAST OF IDABEL ON
                                          HIGHWAY 3.

011*0 PM    NASHVILLE                 AR   .75 INCH HAIL
02/27/96   HOWARD                         PEA TO LARGE MARBLE SIZE
                                          HAIL IN AND NORTH OF
                                          NASHVILLE.

VIII