Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CST THU JAN 17 1996

PROB WITH FCST WILL BE WHETHER SVR WX OCCURS TONIGHT.  SELS RECENTLY
UPGRADED OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE ALL BUT SE KS COUNTIES IN MOD RISK AREA.
DYNAMICS CERTAINLY LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWG STG SFC LOW SITUATED OVER W KS.  STG S WINDS
OUT AHEAD OF THIS PROMPTED HIGH WIND ADVISORIES FOR S MO THIS AFT.  DP
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH SFC BASED LI'S
DROPPING INTO THE 0 TO -2 CATEGORY.  SAT BEGINNING TO SHOW DRY SLOT
INTO LOW OUT IN KS WITH COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING.  DRY LINE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CNTRL KS AND KICT BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
REGION ATTM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS DRY LINE AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS S MO...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SVR. THE
MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  MODELS SEEM PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MORNING.  POLAR FRONT MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND WITH STG SURGE OF
COLD AIR.  MAY BRIEFLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ACCUM EXPECTED AS SPEED OF SYS WILL LIMIT AMTS.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL DURG THE DAY THU WITH COLD AIR PUSHING THRU ALL DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED DURG THE MORN WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED DURG THE DAY.

.STL...SAW YOUR WORK ZONES AND WOULD HIGHLY RECOMMEND CHANGING THE
GROUPING IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA TO AT LEAST INCLUDE THUNDER
TONIGHT AS SELS HAS THIS AREA IN A MOD RISK.

SGF QB 035/035 000/022 010 05+5-
JLN QB 035/035 001/023 012 05+5-

LINDENBERG