Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

PROBLEMS: HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE END UP WITH AND WILL THIS PATTERN
CHANGE BEFORE MID WEEK?

STLT AND 88D THIS AFTN CONTD TO SHOW AREAS OF RW/TRW MOVING NE FROM
OK/SE KS ACRS CWA. SC MO ESCAPING PCPN FOR TIME BEING BUT AREA OVER NW
AR SHIFTING IN THEIR DIRECTION. H5 SHEAR AXIS FROM NE TO SC KS VIA 16Z
PROFILERS. 70+ DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS COMBINING WITH H5 ENERGY TO FORM
SCT TRW NW OF CWA. ADAP SHOWING BULLSEYE OF CONVERGENCE/MIXING RATIO
OVER SC KS/NC OK WITH WEAK WARM THETA ADVECTION: SHOULD BE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVE.

NO ETA DATA TO LOOK AT TODAY...BUT NOT TOO MUCH OF A LOSS CONSIDERING
ITS RECENT EXCESSES WITH H5 VORT ENERGY. NGM/AVN TRY TO MOVE H5 SHEAR
AXIS OUT OF MO MON AS PACIFIC NW SYSTEM MOVES ACRS NRN ROCKIES...BUT
LEERY OF THIS ATTM: LEANING TOWARD KEEPING POPS IN UNTIL I SEE H5 SYS
MOVE. AT ANY RATE...RW/TRW IN FCST FOR CWA...MAINLY OVER NW 2/3 UNTIL
SYS MOVES SE SOMEWHAT...WITH HVY RAIN MAIN THREAT. 12Z MODELS WERE
SLIGHTLY S AND E OF 15Z RUC POSITION SO MY PESSIMISM IS JUSTIFIED (AT
LEAST IN MY EYES).

4-6" OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER BOURBON/CRAWFORD COUNTIES SINCE FRI VIA
88D AND COOP REPORTS...SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH MORE TO FLOOD. FFG VALUES
TOO HIGH FOR NW 1/4 OF CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF H5
SYS JUSTIFICATION FOR FFA TNGT OVER NW 1/4 OF CWA.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A STRUGGLE WITH SOME AREAS STAYING IN THE 70S
AGAIN SUN. WOULD LIKE TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGE NARROW THROUGH MON.

RECOMMENDATIONS: WRKZFP LOOKS OKAY: NO CHANGES NEEDED. SWING SHIFT CAN
RE-EVALUATE FFA AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

SGF TE 069/081 068/082 067 08754
JLN TE 068/083 068/085 069 08754

MS

MOZ077-078-066-067-055-068-KSZ073-097-101-171945-

URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
146 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD...
VERNON AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM...

AT 140 PM CDT RADAR IN SPRINGFIELD CONTINUED TO INDICATED A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CRAWFORD...VERNON AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR'S
TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...LOW WATER CROSSINGS
WILL BECOME FLOODED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAD ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING OVER BOURBON COUNTY
KANSAS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE FLOOD THREAT.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MS

MOZ077-078-088-089-066-067-055-068-056-KSZ073-097-101-172030-

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 330 PM
CDT AS SCHEDULED FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD...VERNON AND ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM CDT RADAR IN SPRINGFIELD INDICATED THAT THE BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SINCE SUNRISE HAD SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN HAD ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING
OVER BOURBON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD...VERNON AND WESTERN ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES. THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 330 PM FOR THESE COUNTIES AS SCHEDULED. UNTIL THEN...LOW AREA
FLOODING...INCLUDING LOW WATER CROSSINGS...WILL CONTINUE.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THEIR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT: ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS
OCCURRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
GROUND NEARING SATURATION...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MS

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180320-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
418 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD...
CHEROKEE...VERNON...CEDAR...ST. CLAIR AND BARTON COUNTIES...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS
WHICH RECIEVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING...THUS THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE COUNTIES OF BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
BARTON...CEDAR...VERNON AND ST. CLAIR IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

REMEMBER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

MS