Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EDT TUE JULN 2, 1996

RECOMMENDATIONS...

WBC...ZONES 32-35..43-46..58 & 59 NEED A POP. (WORDING SAYS CHC..BUT
NO POP). HOW ABOUT MAKING THEM 50 PCT? I COULD GO FOR RAISING THEM
TO LIKELY. POPS TONITE LOOK A LITTLE LOW..BUT CAN WAIT FOR NOW.

RDU...1ST PERIOD OKAY..THOUGH NRN MTNS COULD HV A HIGHER POP.

CRW...1ST PERIOD OKAY. POPS TONITE COULD BE HIGHER..BUT CAN WAIT
TILL THIS AFT.

DISCUSSION...
88D TRACKING TSRA MOVG ACROSS WV ATTM. MIDSHIFT POINTED OUT THAT
THESE WERE FOLLOWING THE PREFERRED 573 THICKNESS...WHICH WOULD BE
MORE ACROSS MY CWA TONITE. ANYWAY..STORMS IN WV ARE WEAKENING SLOWLY
BUT SURELY AS THEY MOVE EWD. THEY WILL BRUSH MY WV CWA..AND IF THEY
HOLD TOGETHER..WILL PASS THRU THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA. LOOKS
TO ME LIKE THE HIGHLANDS WILL GET AT LEAST SOME RW. HAVE HAD A QUICK
LOOK AT OLD 00Z DATA & 12Z RAOBS. ALSO 12Z SFC. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
TROF EXTENDS FROM BETWEEN CHO & ROA SWD TO BETWEEN RDU & GSO. DEWPTS
IN THE 70S E OF THE TROF. I BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR AFT
CONVECTION- SIMILAR TO WHAT NCEP IS SHOWING ON THE L2P. ATMOS IS
MORE WEAKLY CAPPED OVER RNK..AND SCT RW/TSTMS COULD POP UP EARLIER
THERE. MOST NUMEROUS SHOULD BE LATER IN AFT NEAR THE TROF. ANOTHER
AREA WITH MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS COULD BE ACROSS EXT SW VA AND NW NC
WHERE THERE IS STILL A THETA-E RDG. GOOD CHC FOR PCPN FOR MUCH OF MY
CWA TONITE AS THE FRONT SINKS SZWD..A STRONG VORT MOVES THRU & A
COMPLEX OF STORMS LIKELY MOVG EWD FROM TN AREA WHERE CAPES COULD
REACH 4000 THIS AFT.

JJ

VAZ010-011-013-014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-021500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 1996

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HEADED FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...

AT 955 AM...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ROLLING ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
GREENBRIER...SUMMERS AND MONROE COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA BY 1020
AM. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA BORDER BETWEEN 1030 TO 1100 AM. SO...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN BATH...ALLEGHANY...CRAIG...GILES AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...POSSIBLY HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RAPIDLY
CAUSE WATER TO COLLECT ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

THESE STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AND SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. IF THE STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED.

MORE UPDATES WILL FOLLOW ON THESE STORMS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KANE

NCZ001-002-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>045
021655-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 1996

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

AT 1150 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
MONROE...SUMMERS...GREENBRIER...AND MERCER COUNTIES IN WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA.

THE STRONGEST STORMS AT 1150 AM WERE OVER MONROE COUNTY WEST
VIRGINIA NORTHWEST OF UNION. ANOTHER STORM WAS JUST ENTERING
TAZEWELL COUNTY VIRGINIA. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT
30 MPH. THEY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL LIKELY PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA
BETWEEN 100 PM AND 200 PM. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 130 PM.

BE ALERT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE AFTERNOON GOES
ON AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

KANE

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-030000-

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
NOON EDT MON JUL 1 1996

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL
BE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS FRONT IS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF NOON...AND THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE... AND
EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WITH THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...MANY OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL OF AN
INCH OR TWO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.

JACKSON