Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EDT WED JUN 19 1996

RECOMMENDATIONS
WBC...WE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE THE FFA INTO THIS EVE...BUT DON/T
THINK WE/LL NEED IT OVERNITE. I/D GO HIGHER THAN MOS POPS TONITE &
THU. NGM MOS HIGHS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. MOS LOWS LOOK A LITTLE COOL.

CRW...THANKS FOR THE COORD CALL- WILL WATCH FOR YOUR WRKZFP.

RDU...WITH SCT CONVEC OCCURRING NOW...I/D GO HIGHER THAN MOS POPS
FOR THIS EVE. POPS NEED TO BE HIGHER THAN MOS FOR THU. MOS HIGHS
LOOK GOOD...LOWS LOOK A LITTLE COOL.

DISCUSSION...
SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPNS ARE DUMPING UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING. TSTMS ARE ALSO
STILL MOVG AT LEAST 10 KTS. SUBSIDENCE AREA NW OF ARTHUR APPEARS TO
BE IN THE PIEDMONT...THO WV IMAGERY HAS A DRY BAND FURTHER N AND
WEST. ARTHUR STILL MOVG NE ON SATELLITE. MODELS TAKE THE VORT ASSOC
W/ARTHUR INTO ERN N.C. THIS EVE. ACTUAL TRACK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
FURTHER EAST. RW/TSTMS ACROSS SW VA/NW N.C AND SE WV SHUD SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.

ALL MODELS ADVERTISING WAA AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW AS A
SHORT WV MOVES ACROSS THE GRT LAKES AND NY AREA. BELIEVE POPS ARE A
LITTLE LOW FOR TOMORROW DOWN MY WAY. LIKE THE ETA/S DEPICTION OF A
VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU- NGM AND AVN HINT AT THE SAME. GRIDDS SHOWS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVGERNCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THU AFT..AND ALSO
A 340+ THETA-E RDG ALONG THE APPNS.                     X

FAN AND FWC LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE COOL. WARMER FWC HIGHS LOOK PRETTY
GOOD.

ROA 70/91/68/93 4431

JJ

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-201040-

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
NOON EDT WED JUN 19 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR
   THIS EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND INTO THE ALLEGAHNY HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

JACKSON

NCZ004-191940-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT WED JUN 19 1996

AT 320 PM RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF
WALNUT COVE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ATd 5 TO 10 MPH. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM
ALONG ROUTES 311 AND 65 IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF STOKES COUNTY
BETWEEN 320 AND 340 PM.

MTE