Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT MON APR 22 1996

CONDITIONS STILL RIPE FOR SVR WX OVER SE MO INTO THIS MORNING.
KPAH 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED 45 KT AT 2 THSND FEET INCRSG TO
60 KT AT 4 THSND FEET. 00Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED H5 SHORTWAVE
TROF LIFTING NEWD THRU OKLAHOMA...WITH 60 TO 70 KT WIND MAX IN
OUN/SGF REGION. MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO SHEAR APART AS IT
REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IN ADDITION...BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE ACRS OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...THE SVR THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME TODAY. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS OVR SE MO THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

COLD FRONT IS FCST TO REACH PAH/CGI AREAS AROUND 00Z. A SECOND MORE
SIGNIFICANT H5 SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF
OVER OK THIS EVENING...CREATING STG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MDT TO HVY RAINS DURING THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF THIS MORNINGS STORMS PRODUCE HVY RAIN.
SPC QPF GUIDANCE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LOOKS QUITE
PSBL.

THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN THIS AFTN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME AFTN BINOVC...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO 70S.
CAA BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. NGM BRINGS H8 0 ISOTHERM
TO NEAR STL BY 12Z TUESDAY. ETA IS NOT AS COLD.

AREA            HIGHS          LOWS          POPS
WRN KY          74              50            +/+
SE MO           75              47            +/+
SRN IL          72              47            +/+
SW IN           72              50            +/+

MY

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