Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT SUN APR 28 1996

DYING MCS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE CONTINUES TO PUT RAIN IN 60 MILE BAND
CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF CGI TO EVV.  ISOLATED REPORTS OF
PONDING ON ROADS.   WARM FRONT HAS EDGED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.
VAD WINDS AT KPAH SHOWS 30 KT WINDS 2-4K FEET WITH 50 KT WINDS ABOVE
5K FEET.  VAD WINDS INDICATE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS PICKED AGAIN
AFTER GOING UNIDIRECTIONAL THIS MORNING.  BLOOMFIELD PROFILER HASN`T
UPDATED ON THE NET SINCE 15Z.  MORE SUNSHINE ... ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
...SPREADING INTO SECTIONS SOUTH OF POPLAR BLUFF MO TO MADISONVILLE KY LINE.
LIKELY DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMP RISE...TO MAKE FOR A
CONTINUED BUSY DAY.

LOOKING TO TONIGHT AND TOMMORROW...ETA HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB.
THIS MODEL SHOWS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO AREA.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST
(VAD WINDS/PROFILER) INDICATING APPROACHING WAVE.  12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS IN OK & TEXAS PANHANDLE.  HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE GOOD BET WITH
HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND 8-12 G/KG 1000 MB MIXING RATIOS.  TOTAL MODEL
VERTICAL MOTION OF SHOWS TWO BROAD BULLSEYES (OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TOWARD NOON ON MONDAY.  AGREE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH...W/PERHAPS CONSIDERING
ONE FOR WEST KENTUCKY.  LOOKS LIKE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT
...SO CONSIDER 15 TO 25 MPH NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT.  UP POPS TO CATEGORICA<L
FOR MONDAY.

AREA         LOW   HIGH     POP
WRN KY       061    066     +/8
SRN IL       058    062     +/8
SE MO        060    062     +/8
SW IN        060    065     +/8

PW

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-281900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... VALID UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 AM CDT SUN APR 28 1996

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
UNTIL 1 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH
THE HOPKINSVILLE AND MURRAY AREAS OF KENTUCKY UNTIL THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE PRIMARILY AFTER 5 PM TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. FLOODING RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL >BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. AS THIS
WARM MOIST AIR REACHES THE FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

YORK