Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT WED MAY 8 1996

04Z SUFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA (FA).  STORMS FIRING ALONG BOUNDRY WILL DUMP
RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR LIMITS FOR FLASH FLOODING.  ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7AM FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ALL OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.  SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH EACH
NEW PICTURE.  SO THERE IS CONCERN FOR WITH THIS EARLY MORNING EVENT...
ALTHOUGH KPAH 88D HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES MODERATING AS THE STORMS MOVE
EAST.  THE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG A LINE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESS.
IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS ARE PROPAGATING IN AN AREA OF 300 MB DIVERGENCE
AND 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE USING THE 06Z PROG FOR THE 00Z ETA GRIDDS
PACKAGE.  STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY.  LIFTED INDEX VALUES WILL STAY BELOW ZERO...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN PLENTIFUL....SO LIKE POPS FOR TODAY.  PRESSURE DEFICIT
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING TONIGHT.
TOTAL MODEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOWS SOME SINKING MOTION ALSO.  Q-VECTOR
ANALYSIS OF LQ, FN, QN, QS VECTORS IN ALL LAYERS PROVIDED LITTLE INSIGHT.
ANY POP FOR SECOND PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE AN EVENING TYPE WRAP UP OF
ANY AFTERNOON ACTION.  GENERALLY LIKE IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.  CURRENT FOREBCASTS REFLECT THIS THINKING.

AREA    HIGH       LOW        POP

SEMO    L80S      M60S        32
SIL     L80S      L60S        52
WKY     L80S      L60S        32
SWIN    A80       L60S        52

PW/GL