Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 1996

AIRMASS HAS NEVER QUITE RECOVERED ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTN THANKS TO
EARLIER CONVECTION.  DO NOT REALLY SEE MUCH FOCUS FOR STORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MAY SEE SOME SCTD ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER TNT AS THE SFC WV
ACROSS ERN IL MOVES THROUGH THE LWR OH RVR VLY AND DRAGS A COLD FNT
SLIGHTLY SEWD.  MEANWHILE MORE MOISTURE WL BE ADVECTING INTO EAST TN
AND SW VA FROM THE WRN TN/SRN AR RGN LATER TNT.  CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LWR/MID 70S IN THIS RGN.  MAIN DYNAMICS WL STILL BE TO OUR
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHEARING UPR LOW.  STILL THINK THAT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING RAINS ARE UNLKLY.  SOME NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR HVY RAIN
INCLUDE...1) OUTLFOW BNDRY TO OUR SOUTH WL KEEP BEST MOISTURE POOLED
THERE 2) K-INDICES ALONG WITH PW VALUES WL BE LWR THAN THE PAST SVRL
DAYS.

SECONDARY S/W TROUGH WL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES
BIG TIME.  FNTLY BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL.  ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS COOLING OF MID LVL TEMPS
WL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  THUS THERE WL STILL BE A CHC FOR STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WL USHER INTOB THE RGN
WED NIGHT AND THU PROVIDING THE RGN WITH A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE
SUMMERLIKE WX.  MB

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