Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 PM MON DEC 16 1996

18Z SFC MAP INDICATES LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF JAN MS WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW ALONG
GULF COAST REGION. KMOB 88D SHOWING AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SE MS...SW AL AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER AREA HAS NOT ALLOWED ATMOSPHERE
TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND RADAR
PRESENTATIONS OVER AREA NOT VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE ATTM. HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASE IN THE LOLVL JET OVER MUCH THE
FCST AREA THRU REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REGIONAL
88D VWP'S ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING OVER THE AREA. AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING...AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOLVL SHEAR...COULD STILL SEE
ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER EASTERN PART OF CWA THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW OVER MS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO GREAT
LAKES REGION BY 24 HOURS AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FL PNHDL. COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO FCST AREA BEHIND THIS
FRONT. SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD CWA BY PERIODS END.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ...AND OVERRUNNING FROM
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE EAST (SW FLOW ALOFT) BRINGS HIGHER POPS TO
REGION AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLDEST AIR OF SEASON FOR AREA
BEHIND SECOND FRONT EFFECTING AREA DURING EXTENDED PERIOD.

MOB 50/59/51/57 7255           PNS 54/62/54/61 7366
DTS 55/63/57/61 6366           EVR 44/53/46/54 7457 12