Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 1996

OMEGA BLOCK IN N CNTRL US GIVES WAY TO LRG AMPLITUDE RDG WITH TROFS
ALNG EACH COAST.  FOR SRN MS/AL AND NW FL BIG STORY WL BE WHAT SFC
CDFNT WL DO OVR NEXT 2 DAYS. AS THOUGHT YSTRDA...WRLY MID TROPOS WND
FLO WITH INTMTNT S/WAVES HAS ENDED DROUGHT (AT LEAST OVR N PTN OF
CWA). HOPEFULLY...OTFLW BNDRY WL SINK FAR ENUF SW TO CONT TO INITIATE
DEEP CONVECTION FRTHR S WELL INTO THE EVE HRS. TRAINING MCCs ALNG
BNDRY SHD CONT AS THEY ARE IN FVRBL LOLVL THETA-E GRAD AND ALSO
WITHIN DFLNT TKNS RGN (AIDING AGEO VERT MOTIONS). 3000-5000 j/kg
CAPES TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WELL INTO THE EVE HRS...THUS AGREE
WITH MOD RISK (BUT PULSE TYPE SVR TOWARDS CSTL AREAS).  FFA LOOKS OK
ATTM FOR NRN CNTIES BASED ON WILCOX RECEIVING OVR 3 INCHES IN PAST 9
HRS AND PRESENCE OF QSTNY BNDRY (DEPSITE DROUGHT).

BIG DIFFERENCE IN NGM/ETA OVRNIT IS MSTR FIELD.  ETA GOES BONKERS
ALNG COAST WITH PCPN ON WED...WHILE NGM MORE CONSERVATIVE.  GIVEN
CURRENT WX SCENARIO AM INCLINED TO AGREE WITH ETA DUE TO PRESENCE OF
OTFLW BNDRY AND ON-GOING WX.  LWR TROPOS LYR ISENT ANLSYS INDCTS
SUSTAINED ISENT UPGLIDE...MSTR FLUX CVGC AND INSTBY REMAINING INTACT
OVERNITE.  PCP-H20 ARND 1.9" OR SO TOO. NGM MSTR FILEDS DO NOT LOOK
VERY REALISTIC GIVEN ONGOING WX...WHICH FURTHER PUSHES ME TO ETA FCST
FOR WED/WED EVE.

LATE IN PD...FLOW THRU DEEP LYR BECOMES NW IN RESPONSE TO DVLPG E CST
TRF (CWA IS PLACED ON SW EDG).  ANY S/WAVES AND ASSOC THERMAL TRFS
MOVG SE IN FLOW  CUD TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TOO.  DEEP LOLVL MSTR AND INSTBY GOES NO WHERE AND I DO NOT
BUY FROPA THROUGH 60 HRS. CDFNT WL BE IN PERFECT LOCATION TO CONT TO
PRODUCE MULTIPLE OTFLW BNDRIES THRU PD WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES PCPN
CHANCES OVR ZONES.  MOS TEMPS ARE TOO LOW PAST FEW NITES SO WL EDG
UPWARD EVER SO SLGTLY. MAXES LOOK GUD.

MOB 75/90/73/91 3424  PNS 75/91/73/92 3424

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 1996

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
    SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
   FLORIDA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH ALABAMA... EXTREME
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE SINCE THE RETURN OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS.
HOWEVER... ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXISTS SO THAT SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO FORM AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OVER FAR
INLAND SECTIONS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST INITIATE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF EXTREME NW FLORIDA...SW ALABAMA AND SE
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.  SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SW ALABAMA AND SE
MISSISSIPPI AS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STEADILY MOVES SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME AN INCREASING FOCUS FOR THE INITIAT>ION OF
NEWER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 25 MILES INLAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR A LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR FUTURE
WARNINGS...STATEMENTS AND FREQUENT UPDATES.