Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 AM CDT THU AUG 29 1996

PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE SE AND CENTRL GULF CST WILL GIVE WAY TO
FURTHER DEV OF DEEP LOW CENTER TO THE W NEAR THE LA TX BORDER IN RESPONSE
TO ACTIVE S/W MOVING SE OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
AS LOW DEVS EXPECT BETTER PVA TO SHIFT BACK TO WEST AND CARRY N WITH CUTOFF
LOW.  AS A RESULT INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE FROM THE SE AND GULF
BEGINS EARLY THIS PD ALLOWING DEEP TROP AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT.
BEST LIFT ON I296 TO I312 SFC WAS DEPICTED BETWEEN 18Z FRI TO 12Z SAT FROM
SW AL TO S CENTRL MS WITH A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SUFFICIENT MEAN VERT VEL
IN THE SAME PATTERN.  HIGHEST PRECIP AMMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN LINE WITH
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF WITH HIGHEST AMMOUNTS OVR CST SECTIONS OF SW AL
AND EXTREME SE MS.  WITH THIS CAN`T ARGUE WITH LATEST POPS THOUGH MAY WANT
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR THE CST OF AL DUE TO
POSSIBLE TRAIN EFFECTS.  (1) 85/72/84/71 7553  (2) 86/72/85/72 7452     32