Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT THU MAY 30 1996

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PUSHING INTO THE STATE TO SUPRES SHOWER FORMATION IN CENTRAL FLORIDA
IN SPITE OF THE HEATING AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY COASTAL WATERS.

TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL GO TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE IN MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
KICKS TO THE EAST. MODELS KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SOMxE
CU IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND POSSIBLY SOME POPS MELBOURNE SOUTH.

DECKER

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-301630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EDT THU MAY 30 1996

A COOL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY ACTIVE ALONG
THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A
LAKELAND...TO KISSIMMEE...TO CAPE CANAVERAL LINE.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINED MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE
IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. MOST STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BECOME RATHER STRONG.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ADVECT INLAND IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OVER NORTH FLORIDA THAT WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE. SOME OF THE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD TEMPORARILY ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NORTH OF THE TROUGH UNTIL SUFFICIENT DRYING CAN OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT. CENTRAL FLORIDA IS THEREFORE UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER HAZARD. HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES/FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED THIS AFTERNOON. AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.

MARINE OUTLOOK...STORMS WILL FORM INLAND AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH THHE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS...NORTH OF THE TROUGH...LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHARP