Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT MON MAY 13 1996

FEW RW/TRW DEVELOPING OVER SRN COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO EVE HOURS. NOT ABLE TO GET ANY 12Z GRIDDS
HERE YET BUT FROM LOOKING AT AFOS SHOULD BE A TRANSITION IN WX
PATTERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS
SERN STATES. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISHES INTO TUES AND ELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS AREA THRU WED AS SFC HIGH MOVES E OFF
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
STILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLD/WIDELvY SCT RW/TRW MAINLY DURING LATE NITE/MORN HOURS NEAR E
COAST AND DURING AFTERNOON INLAND SECTIONS. PREFER FWC VALUES WHERE
GUIDANCE DIFFERS.

GLITTO

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-131630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1058 AM EDT MON MAY 13 1996

...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXTENDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE FROM VERO BEACH AND FT DRUM SOUTH...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS OVER
SATURATED GROUND LEFT BY THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE OUTLOOK...A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

GLITTO