Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT TUE APR 30 1996

KMLB CURRENTLY SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH CELLS NOW AFFECTING GNV-CRYSTAL RIVER. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SW AS IR SATPIX SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING
BENEATH IMPRESSIVE DIVG ALOFT. LIKE Y'DAY...MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
POTENT COMBINATION OF HI PWATS/LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPR
JET STRK/DIVG ALOFT AND FVRBL LOW LEVEL CONVG...THOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE/SHEAR NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREV RUNS (ONLY ABT 30-35 KTS @
80H). NONETHELESS...STRONG ACTIVITY CONTINUES ATTM AND FVRBL ATMOS
PARAMS CONTINUING THRU ABT 18Z...WITH RESIDUAL RW THROUGH ABT
SUNDOWN. STRONDG STORMS WITH ISOLD SVR WND DMG SEEMS A GOOD PSBLTY
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND WILL HILITE IN ATO. MODLES WANT TO CLEAR
THINGS OUT BY ABOUT 03-06Z WITH BUBBLE HIGH RAPIDLY CRESTING OVER NFL
OVERNIGHT/WED AM.

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FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-301030-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EDT TUE APR 30 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY A

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-301230-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 AM EDT TUE APR 30 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL
200 PM...

AT 700 AM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE AND OCALA TO
LEESBURG AND LAKELAND. ASECOND LINE OF STORMS WAS FROM ST PETERSBURG
TO ABOUT 100 MILES OFFSHORE FORT MYERS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING INLAND EAST OF SARASOTA AND PORT CHARLOTTE. INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH WHILE THE LINE MOVED
EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO LAKE AND WESTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTIES...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF MAY AFFECT
AREAS FROM STUART AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUPITER DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM COULD ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

MARINE OUTLOOK...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BETWEEN 800 AM AND 1000 AM.
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH BETWEEN THE CAPE AND JUPITER INLET WILL BE
AFFECTED BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 400 PM. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT NEAR 35 KNOTS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS AND MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TV OR RADIO STATIONS. SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD BE
RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

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