Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST SAT MAR 30 1996

UNMODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MODIFIED FOR
80/68 AND A SURFACE LIFT OF XMR GIVES LI OF -8 AND CAPE OF 3000. WET
BULB ZERO REMAINS LOW AS MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE COLD...GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. BY SATELLITE EVIDENCE OF RAPIDLY
EXPANDING/COOLING CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF...DIVERGENCE/UVV IS INCREASING AHEAD OF S/W AS PROGGED.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE/SEVERITY
NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA AS BEST DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS REGION. IN
ADDITION...WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA MAY
ACT TO FOCUS STORMS. TO THE SOUTH...LOW/MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS AS
STRONG AS TO THE NORTH AND SEA BREEZE FORCING MAY OFFSET LESSER
DYNAMICS. PLAN TO STRENGTHEN WORDING OF ATO FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WX. THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION TBW.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-302300-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EST SAT MAR 30 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

AT MIDDAY...DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER LEVELS...COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS...
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN A SOME LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE SPACE CENTER TO NEAR SANFORD TO LEESBURG.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT AVON PARK TO VERO BEACH...WHERE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE GREATEST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE
INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TO MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...OR IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AT MID DAY. ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY DEVELOP NEAR SOME OF THE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST FROM ABOUT VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. STRONG
WIND GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THESE STORMS LATER TODAY.

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-302300-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EST SAT MAR 30 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

AT MIDDAY...DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER LEVELS...COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS...
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN A SOME LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE SPACE CENTER TO NEAR SANFORD TO LEESBURG.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT AVON PARK TO VERO BEACH...WHERE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE GREATEST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE
INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TO MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...OR IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AT MID DAY. ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS MAY DEVELOP NEAR SOME OF THE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST FROM ABOUT VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. STRONG
WIND GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THESE STORMS LATER TODAY.