Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
207 PM CDT (107 PM MDT) WED SEP 4 1996

MORNING RAOBS PICKED UP A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...WHICH WAS ALSO INDICATED ON
THE 15Z MODEL UPDATE.  THIS UPPER LEVEL JET IS ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA AS THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICIES HAVE
DECREASED TO -9 ACROSS THE AREA WITH TSRA ALREADY POPPING ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND ALONG THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...ALONG THE SURFACE
THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS PER THE 18Z MAPS DATA.

THE 15Z RUC TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...65F DEW POINTS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS MOUNTAINS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES SETTING UP...CONTINUED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION A GOOD BET.  DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL JET...MID/LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE WEAK...SO EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS TODAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MENTIONED IN THE
LOCAL SHORT TERM FORECASTS.  POPS AND TEMPS BELOW ARE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE VALUES AND PERSISTENCE.

THANKS MUCH TO LBB FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST COORDINATION.

CNM  63/30
MAF  64/30
MRF  58/10
P07  69/10

FAGEN