Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
334 PM CDT WED JUL 24 1996

ANALYSIS OF LATEST VIS LOOP ON SOO/SAC INDICATES LINE OF TRWS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. DOUBT ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER
BEHIND THE LINE. MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEARS BEST BASED ON
SATELLITE DATA.

LOOKING AT MODELS...BOTH ETA AND NGM INITIALIZED WELL WITH VORT MAX
IN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE 12Z WV IMAGE INDICATES SHORTWAVE THROUGH OK
AND TX PANHANDLES WHICH AGAIN AGREES WITH MODELS. THE ETA APPEARS TO
BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A VORT LOBE IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...THIS MAY NOT
BE AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH...BUT DOUBT THIS WILL IMPACT FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH MOISTURE AROUND AND CLOUD COVER MOST
LIKELY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...BELIEVE GUIDANCE
IS ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ARGUE
OVER A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS FOR POPS...BELIEVE PRECIPITATION OVER FOR MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN
TODAY. BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...BELIEVE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH. THUS...RECOMMEND ONLY ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST
OF PB  TONIGHT.

THANKS TO LBB FOR COORDINATION!

CNM 69 10
MAF 68 10
MRF 60 20
P07 77  0

HUBER