Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
247 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 1996

AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SW
TX WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND NEGATIVE LI'S PRESENT. EWRD INTO THE PLAINS
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXISTS WITH LI'S OF MINUS 8 TO 3H ACROSS ERN AND
NRN PB. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSCENT ACROSS THE
PB/SENM...WITH ENERGY PASSING ACROSS NE NM AND TX PNHDLE HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS SE NM/PB. THEREFORE SEVERE WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED EVEN THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER STEEP LR'S...STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE TROF INDICATE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
THE PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION GENERALLY DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS UPPER HIGH INDICATES A TREND TO BUILD E WITH UPPER
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING NE. AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS E TMRW 5H
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST W OF MAF. AGREE WITH LBB TO DOWNPLAY
TRWS AS MID LEVELS WARM. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH TROF
REMAINING W AND SERLY WINDS CONTINUING TMWR. UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
LIKELY IN THE PB WITH UPPER HIGH AND ASCD THCK RIDGE IN PLACE.


CNM 69 20
MAF 69 20
MRF 59 30
P07 72 20

MURDOCH