Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
136 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 1996

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC FROM REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FAUSTO.  EVEN THOUGH
KMAF 88D REFL PRODUCT QUITE FOR A CHANGE BELIEVE THIS WILL CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER FA EAST OF MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL BE HARD TO
BURN OFF WITH DENSE CLOUD FIELD ABOVE.

BELIEVE MODELS HANDLING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FAUSTO POORLY...
ESPECIALLY NGM AND ETA.  THIS IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING ITS
ORIGIN.  BOTH NGM WANT TO TAKE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PVA EAST BUT
THIS SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE WITH H5 TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS
WOULD IMPLY A MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WHICH IS EVIDENT ON LATEST
WV IMAGERY.  WILL TAKE THE MANUAL PROGS OVER MODELS AS THEY SEEM
CLOSEST. WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY STREAMING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC... THIS COMBINED WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE
MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE FA... RAIN AND LOTS OF IT.  00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND EPZ ALREADY HAD COMPUTED PWA VALUES OF NEAR
AN INCH... THESE VALUES WILL ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HENCE... BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OVER
FA WITH GREATEST CONCERN OVER MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE... RECOMMEND
ISSUING A FFA FOR AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS IF NOT EXTENDING IT
EASTWARD AS WELL... ESPECIALLY WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW DAYS
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ENTER THE 70S AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL STICK TO PERSISTENCE.

THANKS TO LBB FOR COORDINATION.

CNM  73/50
MAF  73/60
MRF  71/60
P07  76/6X0

EARLE