Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
214 PM CDT WED AUG 7 1996

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND KLBB 88D REFL DATA SHOW COLD FRONT ABOUT
TO PLAINVIEW.  THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND WILL NOT CONTINUE.  AS IT STANDS...
NOT REALLY MUCH TO PUSH IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG IT LATER TODAY.  WV IMAGERY SHOWING
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUING TO TREK NORTHWESTWARD WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
CENTRAL PORTION OF FA.  KMAF 88D REFL DATA SHOWING STORMS FROM THE
BIG BEND TO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY... MAINLY CONCENTRATED JUST BELOW
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME.  VWP HAS REALLY CHANGED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS AS WINDS HAVE COME AROUND MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY INDICATE WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
5H RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE. PRESENTLY...
THIS FEATURE MAY BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF DRT MOVING WEST.

MODELS POINT AT SOUTHERN CO AND WESTERN NM FOR THE GREATEST DYNAMICS
TONIGHT.  FRONT OVER PANHANDLE WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF ACTIVITY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER FA WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER
THAN 8.0 IN THE LAYER FROM 85H TO 5H.  LACK OF ACTUAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW OVER MUCH OF FA.  HOWEVER...
MOUNTAINS AND COUNTIES UNDER/NEAR MOISTURE PLUME WARRANT 30 PERCENT
POPS WITH CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE... ELSEWHERE 20 PERCENT OR LESS WILL
SUFFICE.  WOULD ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN 4 ZONES JUST IN
CASE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AIDED BY
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TOUGH CALL LATELY AS THEY KEEP BOUNCING BACK
AND FORTH FROM DAY TO DAY. SO WILL GO ABOVE GUID`ANCE AND ADD A TOUCH
OF PERSISTENCE.

CNM  72/30
MAF  72/10
MRF  61/30
P07  72/10

EARLE