Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
232 PM CDT THU JUL 18 1996

17Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROF THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN KS ACROSS
THE EXTREME NW TX PNHDL INTO ERN NM AND SW TX.  MDTLY STRONG
SLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TX PNHDL IN RESPONSE TO
MIGRATORY S/W TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER GREAT LAKES.  TSRA
DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN NEAR THE TROF AXIS ALONG HIER TERRAIN
OF SW TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF MDT INSTABILITY
WITH LI/S OF -6. WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING WEAK MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.

CONUS UPR-LVL PATTERN TO AMPLIFY OVR THE PD AS S/W RDG DEVELOPS OVR
N-CNTRL US.  FURTHER S...SRN US RDG TO BUILD WWD AS HGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE DESERT SW....RESULTING IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE FA.  THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BEGIN TO REDUCE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE PM TSRA EVEN WITH SFC TROF AND AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN IN THE FORM OF RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
OTHERWISE... WL TEND TO STICK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

CNM  70/20
MAF  74/10
MRF  6T1/10
P07  75/0

MEAD/EARLE

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-190500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1135 AM CDT (1035 AM MDT) THU JUL 18 1996

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER... SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS THEY MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM SANDERSON... TO FORT STOCKTON... TO
WINK AND TO HOBBS.

DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EARLE