Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 1996

CONVECTION STARTED IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON..AND IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION. ITS KEEPING US BUSY WITH
NOWS. AT MOMENT..THESE STORMS HAVE NOT REACHED SEVERE LIMITS..BUT DO
SHOW INDICATIONS OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND PSBL FLOODING.
FROM SATL PERSPECTIVE..A VORT MAX EXTDS FROM THE NRN BAJA TO SRN AZ.
A SLIGHT COOLING STILL TAKING PLACE OVER ALONG THE ABOVE AXIS..
BRING MORE DESTABLIZATION TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
SOMEWHAT LOCALLY AND WE HAVE GONE TO AROUND 91F SO FAR.

OUR LOCAL AFOS PLAYING HARDBALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NUMBER OF
CRASHES SO DIRECT MODEL COMPARISON MORE DIFFICULT TODAY. GOOD NEWS
WE HAVE GRIDDS AND INTENET DATA TO PERUSE. LOOKS LIKE THIS SAME
BASIC PATTERN WITH A SLOW WARMING AND DRIER TREND TOWARD THE END OF
THIS WEEK. A VORT LOBE FCSTD BY ALL MODELS FROM SWRN AZ THRU SRN TX
PLAINS LATE TRMW. THIS WILL KEEP A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER
THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHUD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THRU TIME
BUT STILL STILL ENUF TO GET CNVTN GOING AGAIN TMRW. AS YSTDY..THE
MAIN THREAT TONITE WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AT LEAST THE
STORMS ARE REALLY MOVING.. MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL GO AROUND MDL GUIDANCE FOR FIRST PERIOD
NUMBERS. WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD..GOT TO SPEND MORE
TIME ON THE RADAR. COOR WITH LBB. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME....

CNM  69 / 30
MAF  71 / 30
MRF  62 / 20
P07  75 / 20

BOYD

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-170500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1159 AM CDT (1059 AM MDT) TUE JUL 16 1996

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS OF 1130 AM CDT...THE FIRST STORM
HAD FIRED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF THE
CITY OF FORT DAVIS. A DEEP LAYER OF A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...MOIST
...TROPICAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUD DECK
OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
AND INTERACTING OLD BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS WILL HELP WITH
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ON THE MOST PART
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN REGIONS THAT HAD RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE GROUND THERE
ALREADY BEING SATURATED. PERSONS IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING SHOULD
STAY ABREAST OF THE CURRENT WEATHER...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER
GROUND.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BOYD