Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Elko, NV

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
104 PM PDT THU JUL 4 1996

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS FLATTENS THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF UPPER HIGH
AND TURNS FLOW TO WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS GREAT BASIN NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW TREND OF DRIER AIR PUSHING GRADUALLY
EAST.  MODEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING MONSOON
MOISTURE EAST OF CWA BY TONIGHT.

CAPES RUNNING ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A AWH-EKO-P68
LINE.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY AND WHITE PINE COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE THESE IN
ZONES.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND APPROACHING SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY.

ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES BY TO
NORTH...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD AT 500 MB BY LATER FRIDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE -6 C DURING AFTERNOON.  APPEARS DRYING WILL
BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN IN CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WONDER WHETHER MONSOON CAN RETURN THIS FAR NORTH
AND WEST UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  WOULD PROPOSE THAT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED BE WORDED IN A DRIER FASHION.

WMC000-  EKO100-  ELY3-0-     CRAVEN