Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Wilmington, OH

FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EST THU NOV 7 1996

CONCERNS THIS RUN ARE CHC/S FOR HVY RN THIS EVE AND EVALUATION
OF NEED FOR FFA. LTST SFC ANLYS SHWS STG CDFNT FM NR TOL TO NR MIE
TO JUST W OF SDF. MRGNLY UNSBL AMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF THIS FNT. THIS FNT
HS BEEN PARALLEL TO UPR FLO AND SHWN VRY SLO EWD MVNT. UPR TROF OVR
NATIONS MID SECTION SHARPENS UP AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT THRU PD. WV
IMGRY SWHS MAIN S/WV IN MN TROF PSN LFTG NE THRU MO. AS SFC WV OVR SRN
IN LFTS NE PRECIP WL BGN TO ACCELERATE. LN OF CNVTN HS DVLPD ALONG THE
FNT FM SRN IN THRU KY. THREAT FOR SVR-WX IN FORM OF DMGG WNDS WL OCCUR
ACRS XTRM SRN OH AND NRN KY THRU ERLY EVE. PW VALUES XPCTD TO INCRS TO
1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. XPCT TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF MOD TO HVY RN THRU EVE
ESP ACRS SRN OH WHERE BEST MSTR AND INSTBY IS IN PLACE. XPCT TO SEE
1 TO 1.5 BASIN AVG PRECIP VALUES WHICH WL APPROACH FFG. THEREFORE...DUE
NOT XPCT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. H8 60KT SRLY JET OFFERING GOOD
LO LVL CNRGC COUPLED WITH RR QUAD OF 130 KT H3 JET PROVIDING GOOD
UPR DIV ACRS SRN OH THIS EVE WHICH SHIFTS E INTO ERN OH BY 06Z.

PREFER NGM MOVEMENT OF FNT WITH SFC WV NR CVG AT 00Z AND JUST E OF
CLE BY 06Z. NGM GRIDDED TSEC/S SHWG DRY SLOT WORKING INTO WRN OH OVRNGT.
WITH UPR TROF LAGGING OH WL SEE INCRS IN LO LVL MSTR FRI AFTN/NGT
WITH WRAP ARND MSTR. QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. LOOKING AT CRITICAL
RN/SN THICKNESS 1000-850MB LYR RMNS WRM SO PRECIP SHUD BE ALL RAIN BUT
MAY MIX WITH A LTL SNW OVR W CNTRL DURG AFTN. CHC OF SNW SHWRS TO
CONT ACRS ALL OF CWA FRI NGT.

GOOD CAA BEHIND FNT...THERFORE PREFER READINGS CLOSER TO COOLER FAN
NUMBERS TNGT AND WL LKLY SEE NRLY STEADY TEMPS ON FRI.

CVG 043 046/032 038 +57
DAY 041 045/031 037 +68
CMH 046 048/033 037 +78

RANDALL

OHZ063-064-070>074-077>082-088-089-KYZ088>100-INZ058-059-066-
073>075-080-070100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 PM EST NOV 07 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR SOUTHEAST
INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE....CINCINNATI...WILMINGTON...
HAMILTON...CHILLICOTHE AND PORTSMOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OHIO AROUND SUNSET AND INTO CENTRAL
BY MIDNIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CINCINNATI AREA AROUND 4 PM.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

RANDALL

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