Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Wilmington, OH

FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 1996

CONFLUANT FLOW ACROSS FA AIDING IN LOCATING SFC BDRY. ILN 88D
INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BDRY FROM NEAR
CHILLICOTHE...TO JUST NORTH OF CVG AND THEN BACK W/NW INTO IN. ALTHOUGH
LITTLE IF ANY UPPER LVL SUPPORT...CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND SFC BASED
LI'S BELOW -10 IN VCNTY OF SFC BDRY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG/SVR TRW'S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THETA-E MIN AT MID LEVELS
INDICATIVE OF SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY WITH SOME STORMS.

SFC BDRY SHOULD SAG INTO SRN PORTIONS OF FA TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF TRW ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING. GRIDDED DATA...NGM
AND AVN PREFERRED...SUGGEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SWING TO SRN
IL/IN OVERNIGHT. NGM GRIDDS HAVE SFC BDRY TRANSPORTED TO THE EXTREME S
PORTION OF FA...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT PTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TOMORROW...WITH NEXT THREAT OF ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON MONDAY.

DISTEFANO

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