Tornado Warning 25, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
210 PM EST SAT DEC 6 1996

DISC: FOR TEMPS TONIGHT LOW-MID 40S.  TOM GO BELOW FWC WITH HIGHS MID
50S TOPS.  LOWS SUN NIGHT MID 30S AND HIGHS MON NR 45.  40-50 POPS
FOR ERLY EVNG ACTIVITY (60 OTR BNKS) AND 30-40 POPS FOR
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON MON.  AM CONCERNED ABOUT PSBL GALE TONIGHT BUT
WILL GO WITH SCA FOR NOW.

DISC: OUR FCST PERIOD WILL DOMINATED BY A MEGA-TROF WHICH AMPLIFIES
NXT 48 HRS.  LOWEST 500 MB HEIGHTS IN QUITE SOME TIME WILL BE OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF STRONG VORT'S ROUNDING THE BUILDING WSTRN
RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WX UNSETTLED ACRSS THE REGION WHILE USHERING IN
MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH.  FIRST VORT THIS EVENG WILL
BLOW UP A CSTL LOW OFF THE VA CAPES ARND 00Z.  ASCTD COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ERSTRN NC THIS EVENG PRECEDED BY SHRA/TSRA.  QUICK SHOT OF
POTENT DYNAMICS SHOULD GIVE MOST LOCATIONS 1/4-1/2 INCH OF PCPN.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF SURGE OF CAA FOLLOWG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN
CAA BACKS OFF AS FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG BUT
CHANELLED VORT ON SUN.  AT THE SFC IT APPEARS A WEAK LOW AND SECDRY
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACRSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME INTERESTG WX ON MON AS ANOTHER STRONG
VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF.

FOR SUN I AM EXPECTG SCT-BKN SC AS ENUF/MOIST LIFT AROUND AND ANY
INSLOATION WITH COLD TEMPS ALFT WILL BE UNSTABLE ENUF TO GENERATE LOW
CLOUDS.  ON MON ALL MODELS DEVELOP A LOW WELL OFF THE NC COAST IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHG VORT MAX.  ETA/NGM/ETA ALL GENERATE SIG UVV'S
JUST OFFSHORE WITH OTR BNKS ON THE WSTRN FRINGE OF STRONG LIFT. WRAP
AROUND MOIST FROM OCCLUDED LOW OVR SRN CANADA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
SO THINK LOW CHC POPS WITH MENTION OF A SHOWER OR FLURRY IN ORDER.
IF LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE W...THEN THINGS COULD GET MIGHTY
INTERESTING WITH THKNS VALUES NR 520 AND 850 TEMPS WELL BELOW ZER
0C.

CWF:  WILL HEED RECCOMENDATIONS FROM ILM/RDU AND KEEP SCA GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MRP/ETA-NGM FOUS/AND GRIDDED DATA ALL
SUGGEST WINDS WILL DECREASE WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN AFTN-SUN EVENG
BEFORE SECOND SURGE OF CAA DEVLOPS.  ILM SUGGESTION OF RANGE OF SEAS
NEARSHORE-OFFSHORE GOOD AND WILL USE THIS TO KEEP SCA GOING DESPITE
SLACKENING OF WINDS.  COULD BE A BRIEF GALE THIS EVENG AND AGAIN
MON.  THIS EVENG WITH LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN N OF THE WATERS AND MOVE
RAPIDLY NE THINK IT'S BEST TO GO WITH STRONG SCA.  NOT SOLD ON IDEA
OF GALE FOR MON AND PREFER ILM SUGGESTION TO WITH 25-30 KTS FOR
NOW.

.MHX...SCA SOUNDS AND CSTL WTRS.

JME