Tornado Warning 23, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 AM EST FRI NOV 8 1996

5H LRG AMPLITUDE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILITED AS IT SLOLY PUSHES
TO THE EAST. FRNT HAS NOT SHOWED MUCH OF A SLOW DOWN DURG THE PAST 24
HRS HOWEVER IT IS NOW UPON THE MTNS VIA 06Z ADAP WHICH WILL SLOW IT A
BIT. PROGS HAVE TROF STILL LAGGING BEHIND FRNT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE ILM
CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z SAT. AS IT TURNS OUT...CULD HAVE 2 EVENTS WITH
SQUALL LINES ONE ASSOCIATED WITH DIRECTIONAL WIND CONV AT THE SFC AND THE
OTHER THE FRNT ITSELF. PARAMETERS CONTINU TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WX AND WULD HEAVILY STATE IT IN THE ZNS. THE LAST AND STRNGER OF
THE S/WS WILL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CROSS ILM CWA BY 12Z
SAT. WULD CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR PCPN FRM 01Z INLAND CNTYS TO 05Z AT
THE CST. CONTINUE PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS INTO ERLY SAT MORNING FROM LAST S/W
ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. LOW RHS...SUB 30 PERCENT...WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES FOR REMAINDER OF SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS...WILL FOLLOW FWC TODAY AND TONITE BUT THEN COMPROMISE WITH FAN
THEREAFTER WITH CAA AT ALL LEVELS AS 8H 0 ISOTHERM CROSSES THE ILM
CWA DURG SAT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SAT WILL HELP COUNTER THE CAA SUMWHAT
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FWC HIS.

CWF...SCA CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING MET. LATEST GUIDANCE OUTPUT
INDICATES WINDS WILL APPROACH AND EXCEED GALE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NC
WATERS. FOR ILM CWA WULD LIKE TO KEEP A STRONG SCA WITH 30 KT AND
GUSTY. NORTH OF THE ILM CWA WTRS...GALE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET.
WULD WORD OVR ALL WTRS S BECOMNG SW LATE TODAY. SW BECOMNG W OVRNITE.
W FOR SAT. PRESS GRADIENT TO RELAX RATHER QUICKLY SAT...THERE4
WORD 20 KTS BECOMNG 10 KTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT TODAY...
DECREASING AFTER FRNTL PASSAGE TO 4 FT SC WTRS 5 FT NC WTRS
DURG SAT.

ILM TB 078/049 057/033 058 850
FLO TB 076/048 056/031 057 830

DCH

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-505-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-091300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST FRI NOV 8 1996

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

..................SOUTH CAROLINA...................................
DARLINGTON    GEORGETOWN     MARLBORO
DILLON        HORRY          WILLIAMSBURG
FLORENCE      MARLBORO       ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

..................NORTH CAROLINA...................................
BLADEN        NEW HANOVER    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
BRUNSWICK     PENDER
COLUMBUS      ROBESON
...................................................................

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BREAK OUT THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY ALONG WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC
ARE URGED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES AND
REPORT ALL EVENTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DCH