Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
152 AM EST SAT JAN 27 1996

CAE: CONT CURRENT TRENDS WITH MENTION OF CHC OF SVR. TEMPS ALREADY
IN THE LWR TO MID 60S ATTM AND EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LWR 70S BEFORE FROPA. NO CHNGS TO REST OF FCST.

RAH: FCSTS LOOK GOOD.

DISC: SATL LOOPS AND LATEST LDS INDICATE STRNGEST TSTMS ACRS WRN AL
INTO NRN GA AND WRN SC... INTO RGN OF STRNG MOIST CONV PER ADAP.
SCT RW/TRW OUT AHEAD OF THIS AREA AND A FEW OFF WATERS... WHICH WL
AFFECT PTS OF CWA EARLY THIS AM. LATEST SFC ANAL COMPARED WITH MDLS
FOR 06Z FCST SHOWS ETA/NGM A LITTLE FAST WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF
CDFNT. AS A RESULT EXPECT STRNG TRW TO MOV INTO PEE DEE RGN ARND
DAYBREAK AND ALNG THE CST LATER THIS AM WITH FROPA EARLY AFTN. MDLS
REMAIN SIM IN STRNG MOIST CONV AHEAD OF SYS AND GOOD THETA-E RIDGE
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... CAUSING MORE PROBS MUCH FARTHER N AND W
THAN HERE. LOWEST LI/S ARE MAINLY ACRS SRN/ERN SC. SPC KEEPS RGN IN
SLGT RISK TDAY AND WL NEED TO CONT HIGHLIGHT IN ZNS FOR THE CHC OF
WND DAMAGE... ESP WI STRNG H8 JET.

WITH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S AT TIME... FCST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LWR 70S LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE FROPA. STRNG CAA BEHIND THIS
SYS WITH N WNDS ARND 10 MPH. MDLS INDICATE SLOWLY RISING THICKNESSES
THRU SUNDAY AND HIGHS WL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LWR 50S PER
GOING FCSTS.

CWF: CONT GALES FOR TDAY... WNDS SSE AT TIME WITH SEAS ARND 10 FT
OFF TWRS. WNDS WL BECOME SW THIS AFTN ... THEN NORTH TNIGHT. MAY
NEED SCA FOR A BRIEF PD AFT GALES ARE LOWERED THIS EVE.

ILM TU 072/031 048 910
FLO TU 070/029 051 900

SQI