Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERCE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT THU SEP 5 1996

RDU: THINK WE ALREADY HAVE EVERY HEADLINE KNOWN TO MAN IN THE ZFP.

DISC: KMHX 88-D STARTING TO PICK UP NMRS 10K FT MESO'S WITH HOOK
ECHOS 25-40 MILES OFFSHORE OF ILM CWA.  EXPECT THINGS TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE ACROSS MY CWA BETWEEN 4-6 PM.  WE THINK LANDFALL WILL BE
IN BRUNSWICK CO 00-02Z BASED ON RADAR SAT FIXES.  MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SYSTEM INTO CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WILL FRAN INTENSIFY?  LAST FEW VIS/IR SAT PIX INDICATE
COOLING TOPS ARND EYE SO THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.  FORTUNATELY
FLT LVL WNDS AND PRES HAVE NOT CHANGED IN LAST RECON FIX.

HVY RAINS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ON TOP OF RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL
CONTINUE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.  WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL
HAVE NO TROUBLE IN KNOCKING OVER TREES.  THROW IN THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES AND IT WILL STILL BE A DANGEROUS NIGHT ACROSS MY CWA.

AGREE WITH DAY2 SVR DISC AS FEEDER BANDS INTO REMNANTS OF FRAN WILL
HAVE FVRBL HELOCITY AND LOWER MEAN RH IMPLIES INSOLATION.  MORE TSRA
POSSIBLE SAT AS ENUF MOIST/INSTAB REMAINS.

CWF: WOW 32 FT SEAS AT FPSN!!!  HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM CURRENT
FCST.  TOUGH TRYING TO FIGURE SEA HGTS 2-4TH PERIODS SINCE SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BE 25+ FT OVERNIGHT BUT GAVE IT THE OL COLLEGE TRY.
ANY COMMENTS SUGGESTIONS RDU/ILM GIVE ME A HOLLER.  WILL SEND
RDUWRKCWF OVER AFOS FOR YOUR READING PLEASURE.

.MHX...HURRICANE WARNING ENTIRE COAST AND SOUNDS.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
       HIGH WIND WATCH PARTS OF CSTL PLAIN TONIGHT.

JME