Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 1996

MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS.  AT 19Z CAP WAS STILL HOLDING.  TCU TRIED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF 700
MB VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER THE CAP QUICKLY SQUASHED THEIR
ATTEMPT IN GROWTH.  SATELLITE SHOWS THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR WAS
ERODING AWAY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE WILL ERODE SOME OF THE CAP...ITS JUST A
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH.  EIV CHART SHOWS CONVECTIVE TEMP IS 100 IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO 108 IN NORTHEAST. RECORD HEAT ALREADY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KS...DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO AREA PROVIDING SOME
LIFT WOULD STILL LIKE TO HOLD A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 48HRS.  300 MB UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST...RESULT IS
SEVERAL RIPPLES/SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WASHOUT ACROSS KS ON SATURDAY AS
MOST OF THE SUPPORT HEADS OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND NEXT LEE
SIDE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
AND PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

RSL 064/096 2-   SLN 066/095 3-
ICT 069/095 3-   HUT 067/095 3-
CNU 070/089 3-

NOONAN