Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 1996

FORECAST PROBLEM CONCERNS PRECIP CHANCES...WITH MODELS GOING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS IN REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. AGREED WITH NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND THREW OUT THE NGM WITH ITS USUAL BIAS OF OVERDEVELOPMENT TOO
FAR NORTH. COMPROMISE ETA/AVN SOLUTION LOOKS BEST...THOUGH AVN MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH SFC FEATURES GIVEN JET ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
WESTERN TROUGH. LOOK AT 18Z SFC INDICATES 60+ DEWPOINTS UP TO THE RED
RIVER WITH 50S WELL INTO OKLAHOMA AS LOW WINDS UP OVER WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE. BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AFTER THAT
STG LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIP FAIRLY QUICKLY
SUN...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL. LINGERING PRECIP IN THE THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MON LOOKS GOOD AS FRONTAL BOUDARY HANGS UP OVER
AR/SE OK. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER WITH HIGH BL RH ELSWHERE AND WOULDN'T RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND FIT CURRENT FORECAST
OK...MIGHT GO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FOR MAXES ON SUN. WILL GO UNDER
GUIDANCE POPS CE...NEAR FAN ELSEWHERE.
.
RSL 045/051 43   SLN 047/054 53
ICT 053/056 75   HU^T 051/055 64
CNU 056/061 88

PETERSEN