Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 1996

PROBABLY LOOKING AT TWO THUNDERSTORM EVENTS THIS PKG.  ONE THIS
EVENING AND ONE LATE TONIGHT.  LOW DVLPG OVR WRN KS WITH WARM FRONT
THROUGH NRN KS.  HI TEMPS AND DWPTS HAVE DESTABLIZED AMS THIS
AFTN...HOWEVER AMS CURRENTLY CAPPED PER SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH
MODEL 700 MB TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER MARION/CHASE COUNTIES
ON WHAT IS PROBABALY THE EDGE OF THE CAP.  THESE MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY TAIL END OF VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH IA AND OUTFLOW
BNDRY FROM THIS MRNGS CONVECTION.  WITH WAA AT 700 FEEL CAP WILL
HOLD OVER MOST OF AREA AND WILL NEED INCRG SFC CONVERGENCE TO BREAK
IT.  BEST CHC THIS EVNG WILL BE NEARER THE FNT IN CNTRL KS.  OVRNGT
A WK VORT LOBE SHUD MOVE ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS AND COMBINE WITH LLJ
TO SET UP MCS IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE IN NE.  THICKNESS PATTERNS
INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACRS ERN KS.  WOULD
SPLIT ZONES UP ALONG LINCOLN-ICT LINE ON THIS ONE.

TMRW...SFC LOW TO STRENTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CWA.
CAP TO REMAIN STG WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 14.  850 TEMPS INDICATE
ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 95-100 ACRS CNTRL/SCNTRL...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO POP CAP UNTIL LATE...ESPECIALLY IF AMS HAS TO RECOVER FROM
MRNG CONVECTION.  WILL KEEP POPS REASONABLY LOW AGAIN.

RSL 069/098 33   SLN 070/096 43
ICT 071/098 23   HUT 070/098 23
CNU 070/094 22

MATT