Tornado Warning 19, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 1996

BIG BLAST OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT!

MESOHIGH PUSHED BOUNDARY INTO GULF STABALIZING THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY DRAPED BACK ON SHORE NEAR PSX.  THIS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH THIS EVENING RECHARGING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SETX. STRONG S/W
OVER NM TO SWING QUICKLY ACROSS TX TONIGHT ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE
OVER SETX.  TIMING THIS TO THE NW ZONES WOULD PUT IT NEAR THE CLL
AREA AFTER 1000 PM...AND INTO THE CONROE/HOUSTON AREA BY 1 AM.
ENVIORNMENT SHOULD BE VERY RIPE FOR SVR CONVECTION (POSSIBLY
TORNADOS) DUE TO LL WIND SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES.  COOR WITH SAT TO
CONTINUE FFA AND WILL CONTINUE THE PREV SVR/LCL HVY TSRA.   WILL
REISSUE THE STRONGLY WORDED SWO AT 4 PM.   CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
HIGH TONIGHT AND THEN TAPERING OFF...BUT/ALTHOUGH ETA LL WINDS SHOW A
SQ LINE HAVING MOVED INTO THE GULF THE ACTUAL FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
AT THE COAST OR POSSIBLY INLAND.  AT THIS POINT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT
TO SAY BUT GIVEN THE TREND WITH THE MODELS THE LAST 2 DAYS I DON'T
SEE IT MAKING IT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT LIKE THE ETA/NGM HINT.  WILL
KEEP 30 TO 40 POPS IN FOR SATURDAY TOWARD THE COAST...SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND.  ATMOS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY PER MODELS BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE THIS OCCUR.

45
               T        P
CLL.......71/92/69/93  5212
IAH.......73/90/72/91  8322
GLS.......76/88/76/89  8432
SW ZONES..77/89/76/89  8443

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-210900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
350 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 1996

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NEARLY ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

MOISTURE WAS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE REGION AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEGAN STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGAN
MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE SPEED OF THE
JETSTREAM LEVEL WINDS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WIND SHIFT LINE IN CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NEAR FORT
WORTH TO JUNCTION.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL SWING EAST REACHING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  DUE TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS
AS WELL AS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD EXPECT TO BE
ACTIVATED THIS TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHERP NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS.

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235-236-210255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
356 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 1996

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 1000 PM THIS EVENING.  THIS TORNADO WATCH IS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO MATAGORDA. THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TORNADO WATCH...

...AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND
WALLER.  THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY ARE INCLUDED
IN THIS TORNADO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INTENSIFY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
X
A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AND FUTURE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.