Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 1996

UPR LVL SHRT WV MOVG TWRD UPR TX COAST PRODUCING A FEW PSBLE SVR TRWS
OVR LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THIS AFTN.  SATL LOOP SHOWS SHRT WV
MOVG TO THE SE AND MDLS HAVE IT MOVG OFF COAST ARND 00Z THIS EVNG.
UPR LVL RIDGE BLDG IN BEHIND SHRT WV BUT WITH LATE HEATING AND SFC
FNT IN VCNTY...WOULD LIKE TO GO MOSTLY CLDY WITH 20% POPS NORTH ZONES
AND UP POPS OVR CNTRL AND COASTAL ZONES FOR THIS EVENING TO 30% WITH
MENTION OF PSBLE SVR THERE.  BELIEVE THREAT WILL BE OVER BY MIDNGT AS
MDLS SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE BLDG IN AND SHRT WV MOVG INTO GULF BY THEN.
SHALLOW SFC FNT BETWEEN CLL AND IAH SHUD STALL IN VCNTY OF CRNT
LOCATION AND THEN BACKUP AS WF ON SUN.  ON SUN...EXPECT SOME MORNG
LOW CLDS AND PSBLY PATCHY FOG WITH WEAK GRAD...THEN PARTLY CLDY BY
NOON.  MDLS HINT AT ENERGY RIDING DOWN EAST SIDE OF RIDGE SUN AFTN
AND MAY WARRANT A 20% CHC FOR SUN AFTN TRWS CNTRL AND COASTAL ZONES
AS FA WILL RMN UNSTABLE WITH WF MVG BACK TO NORTH.  DPWTS AND FNT
WILL DICTATE LOWS TNGT...THINKING WARMER THAN NGM MOS ATTM.  NGM MOS
HIGHS ON SUN AND MON LOOK CLOSE.  BUSY ON RADAR...HAVE TO GO.  39
V
PRELIMS...CLL 68/88 20/20     IAH 70/88 30/20     GLS 74/84 30/20

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-120500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 1996

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF WHARTON...
HOUSTON...LIBERTY...ANAHUAC...AND GALVESTON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT AND VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST BY LATE EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.