Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 AM EST THU NOV 7 1996

ALL: KEEP SEVERE WORDING AHEAD OF LINE...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK CLOSE FOR
MAXES.  GUID TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM REST OF SHORT RANGE.
RAH: FEEL WE WL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE TN BORDER COUNTIES SAT.

DISC:  LOOKS LIKE BASICALLY TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS PKG...STRONG
CONVECTION AND HIGH WINDS ALONG ACTIVE COLD FRONT - AND COLD AIR/PSBL
ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN PARTS OF MY NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.  FOR TODAY RCMD
CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS...TAPERING OFF BY ERLY AFTN UPSTATE/NC MTNS
AND LATE AFTN IN MY NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES.  DYNAMICS/AVAIALBLE MSTR
SUPPORT SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALL AREAS.  MY FORECAST NUMBERS ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL FALL IN THE WEST.

SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE WHAT APPEARS TO BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF THE MTNS.  STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPS < -5 AND RH > 90% AT 850 WILL ALMOST ALWAYS YIELD
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGH MTNS...BUT WHAT REALLY CONCERNS ME IS THE
STRONG MID LEVEL COLD CORE/ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREE WILL SWING ACRS THE NORTHERN MTNS SATURDAY MORNING.  FEEL
ACCUMULATING SNOW WORDING IS JUSTIFIED.  ELSW...GUIDANCE TEMPS LK A BIT
WARM ALL AREAS.

AVL **/32/41 +23  ** TEMPS FALLING/HIER POPS N MTNS SAT
CLT 72/39/49 +00
GSP 70/35/49 +00

JOHNSTONE

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-081200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT THU NOV  7 1996

...WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER TENNESSEE IS HEADING EAST TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. BY LATE TONIGHT THESE WINDS WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTIANS.

THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTIANS FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

GAR

SCZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-010-011-012-019-NCZ058-051-059-
052-048-053-062-063-064-065-049-050-033-054-055-034-035-066-067-
036-037-057-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ013-014-009-NCZ056-068-
070-069-071-082-072-080915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
213 AM EST FRI NOV 8 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...ALL OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
UNTIL 8 AM...

...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO
PROVIDE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
ALSO...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ONE HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. IN AREAS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS LIKELY.

WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PEOPLE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGI"NG WEATHER WILL END LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE AREA.

MOYER