Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
155 PM EDT WED AUG 7 1996

NSAT SHOWS CLR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
ERN PORTION WHERE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PLAINS CONVECTION IS
SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER WEST, MAP DATA
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM NE WI SWWD TO DVN TO SE NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NRN END HAS BEEN ACCELERATING A LITTLE LATELY. THE
CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT IS QUITE EVIDENT ON THE ADAP SSW.
ADAP ALSO SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN WI
TO NE MO. LIS OF -8 TO -10. NSAT SHOWS TCU FIRING IN THE NRN FA FROM
JUST NORTH OF LDM TO HTL TO APN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
I ENVISION A SQUALL LINE FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN MOVG EWD.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SHEAR IN THE
UPR LVLS.
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING IN THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA WITH THE
ETA BEING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NGM.  I PREFER THE ETA. IT SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.  OTHER THAN THE
RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF WX BEHIND IT.
SO, AFTER FROPA (LATE EVENING TO ERLY MORNING ACROSS THE FA) SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT AND THU SHOULD BE SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID AS DWPTS
FALL INTO THE 50S BY EVENING.

WF