Tornado Warning 44, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
106 PM MDT (206 PM CDT) FRI AUG 2 1996

SHRT TERM:  ONLY CONCERN TNGT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS.  ETA
IS MUCH STGR WITH DVLPG AN IMPL OVNGT CURRENTLY OVR WRN WY.
NGM IS MUCH WKER WITH THIS SYS BY 12Z SAT.  LOOKING AT GRIDDED
DATA...NEITHER THE ETA OR NGM INDCD MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LVL
Q-VEC CNVRG OR LLVL MOISTURE CNVRG ACRS OUR CWA OVNGT.  FURTHERMORE
...H7 TEMPS ARE PROGD TO BE ON THE RISE BGNG THIS AFT. ONE FACTOR
FAVORABLE FOR TSTM ACTVTY THIS EVE IS VERY HI DWPNTS E OF A FAIRLY
SHARP DRY LN WHICH WL LKLY RESIDE NEAR THE CO/KS BDR. MODIFIED CAPES
FM SHARP 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE 3500+ SO SVR STMS PSBL.  IF DAYTIME
HEATING BREAKS THRU CAP LTR THIS EVE...ENOUGH UPR FORCING MAY OCR
OVR THE CWA TNGT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
INTO THE ERN PTN OF THE CWA.  WL GO SLIGHTLY ABV FWC GUIDANCE POPS
ACRS ALL PTNS OF THE CWA TNGT. GVN MORE WRLY SFC COMPONENT WNDS
PROGD BY BOTH THE NGM/ETA LTR TNGT...FEEL FOG WL NOT BE A MAJ
PROBLEM AND WL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG PSBL FOR ERN NW KS AND RED
WILLOW COUNTY NE.

LONG TERM:  INCRNG H7 AND H8 TEMPS AND LLVL WRLY COMP WNDS SHOULD
BRING HOTTER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WX ON SAT INTO SUN ACRS THE CWA.
ETA/AVN H8 TEMPS OF +35 FOR SUN 00Z LOOK TOO WRM GVN WET GND AND
LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABILTY...HWVR...EVEN NGM H8 TEMP IS ARND +30 DEG
C...SO HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S CWA WIDE SEEM IN ORDER.  GVN
DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF DEFINED UPR AIR SUPPORT THRU PD 3...WL
NOT MENTION POPS BEYOND TIL PD 4 WHEN THE NXT COLD FNT MOVING SE FM
THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CWA.  TIMING OF FNT BY ETA/NGM LOOKS
A LTL FAST COMPARED TO THE AVN...BUT FEEL A DEEP UPR LVL TROF OVR
THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD ALLOW SFC HI TO BLD OVR THE PAC NW GREATER
THAN PROGD BY SHRT RANGE MODELS ATTM...ALLOWING FOR A RLTVLY ERL
COLD FNTL PSG. FWC TEMPS LOOK GD...XCP PERHAPS A TAD LOW FOR SE
COUNTIES ON SUN WHERE FNTL PSG WL LKLY BE IN THE ERLY A|FT
HRS...ALLOWIG TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S.  SEE CCF PTN FOR
TEMP AND POP DETAILS.

GLD 65/95/65/92 211    HLC 68/94/69/96 211
CBK 66/95/67/94 211    MCK 66/95/67/93 211
TRB 65/96/65/93 211    ITR 64/96/63/94 211

VJN

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-022255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT (352 PM CDT) FRI AUG 2 1996

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE LIKELY TO BE EXTREMELY STRONG DUE
TO THE RECENT WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

JJK