Tornado Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT (242 PM CDT) WED MAY 22 1996

...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS/LOCATION OF PCPN...

...SENT THIS OUT EARLY...EXPECTING BUSY PERIOD SOMEWHERE/TIME SOON...
HAVE NO TROUBLES WITH MODELS INTERPRETATION OF WX PATRN AT SYNOPTIC
SCALE THRU 4TH. AGAIN...HI PLAINS WIL HAVE A COMPLEX PCPN PATRN OF
NOCTURNAL SHRWS/TRWS AS S/W ENERGY WHIPS ARD BASE OF UPR LO THRU
4TH PD. A SERIES OF SFC LOWS SHUD DRAG ACRS A FRONTAL BNDRY THAT
SLOLY SAGS COOLER AIR FROM WYO OVER THE CWA AS TIME PROGRESSES.
PROBLEM HERE WIL BE TO IDENTIFY WHICH S/W PASSAGE ALOFT WIL FINALLY
DRAG COOLER SFC AIR INTO AREA. IT APPRS OUTSIDE THIS FCST FOR
NOW...BASED ON H85 TEMP FCSTS OF THE ETA. BUT AS TRW COMPLEX
TRIES TO KICK DVLP AND KICK OUT LATER TDY...ENUF NWLY FLO CUD
SEEP INTO EXTREME NWRN ZNS BY MRNG. UNTIL WE CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE
THAT UPR TROF WILL FINALLY KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AGAIN OUTSIDE
THE WINDOW OF THIS FCST PD.
SEE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER CWA AS LARGE...AND BROAD SFC
TROF PATRN OVER FRONT RANGE...AS PEGGED BY THE MODELS...CONTINUES TO
WRAP MOIST FLOW NWWD. EACH DAYLIGHT PD...PERIODICALLY OVER THE
FORECAST PD... THE SFC TROF TILTS MORE COUNTERCLOCKWISE IN A NNW/SSE
TO WNW/ESE WITH COOL AIR...CLDS AND PCPN PILING UP OVER SE WYO AND
MOVG ALG THE TRF FOR SURE ON FRIDAY OVER NWRN CWA. PROBLEM IS THAT
THRUOUT THIS FCST PD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WIL BE DCRG AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SWLY SO PCPN WIL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. WIL GO BLO
TEMP GUID ON FRIDAY FOR HIGHS FOR THICK CLOUD. EMBEDDED TRWS IN S/W
ENERGY RIDING OVR THE TOP. SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN
POSSIBLE...BUT AM STILL NOT SURE WHERE BEST CHCS ARE...ATTM CONSIDER
YUMA CTY COLO AS A SUSPECT.

GLD  55/79/52/73 3-3- HLC 60/87/57/77  3-22
CBK  57/82/53/75 3-3- MCK 55/80/53/72  3432
TRB  57/86/52/78 3-3- ITR 52/78/49/70  2-46

VOJTESAK

COZ090-NEZ079-080-230255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT (356 PM CDT) WED MAY 22 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...THE WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY...
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. SOME CITIES IN THIS AREA INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH ARE YUMA AND WRAY.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE WATCH INCLUDES DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BENKELMAN...STRATTON...AND
TRENTON.

WARM MOIST AIR IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR...HAS CREATED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SEEK SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LASTEST ZINFORMATION ON DEVELOPING STORMS.

STAVISH

COZ090-NEZ079-080-230255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT (356 PM CDT) WED MAY 22 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...THE WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY...
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. SOME CITIES IN THIS AREA INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH ARE YUMA AND WRAY.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE WATCH INCLUDES DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BENKELMAN...STRATTON...AND
TRENTON.
WARM MOIST AIR IS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR...HAS CREATED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SEEK SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LASTEST INF"ORMATION ON DEVELOPING STORMS.

STAVISH

COZ090-NEZ079-080-222315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MDT (510 PM CDT) WED MAY 22 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND NORTHERN YUMA
COUNTY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

AT 405 PM MDT (505 PM CDT) THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY IN COLORADO.  THREE STORMS WERE DETECTED BY
GOODLAND DOPPLER RADAR OVER.  THE STRONGEST WAS 12 MILES
NORTH OF WRAY WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
YUMA AND 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YUMA.  ALL THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH.

THE KEY TO SURVIVAL IS ADVANCED PLANNING.  YOU SHOULD KNOW WHERE
THE SAFEST AREAS OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ARE...SUCH AS INTERIOR
ROOMS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ090-NEZ079-080-230010-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT (605 PM CDT) WED MAY 22 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHERN YUMA AND ALL OF DUNDY AND
HITCHCOCK COUNTIES CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF YUMA COUNTY INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTY... MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST AT 20
MPH.  THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS AREA THROUGH 6 PM MDT (7 PM
CDT).

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS THIS EVENING... CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE SKY.

REMEMBER... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

ENTWISTLE