Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT (301 PM CDT) FRI SEP 6 1996

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM PRECIPITATION THROUGH FIRST AND SECOND
   PERIODS...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC HAS 5H SHORT WAVE
OVER WESTERN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 0Z WITH
MM5 MODEL SHOWING GOOD DIVERGENCE AT 3H THROUGH 06Z. MM5 MODEL ALSO
HAS HIGHEST CAPES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING IN AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED THE MOST SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH FRONT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 06Z IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE. HIGH PW VALUES OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DECREASES PER THE MM5...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDDAY. SFC
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FA WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING FROM NW
TO SE. AVN MODEL FROM 0Z KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PER DISCUSSION WITH DDC...AGREE 0Z MODEL RUNS
UNDERESTIMATED STRENGTH OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREFORE SFC
HIGH TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TO RESULT IN SE FLOW
OVER MOST OF CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR BEHIND FRONT SHOULD PREVENT
FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS IN RESPONSE TO
GREATER THAN EXPECTED COOLING. WENT BELOW FMR/FAN N8UMBERS OF 0Z RUN
FOR OUT PERIODS AS WELL.

GLD 051/070/049/076 930  HLC 057/071/053/077 730
CBK 053/071/051/078 930  MCK 054/069/050/075 720
TRB 058/072/052/080 730  ITR 050/070/048/075 920

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