Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
102 PM MDT (202 PM CDT) SUN AUG 4 1996

SHRT TERM CHALLENGE WILL DEFINITELY BE SVR WX CHCS LT THIS AFT
INTO TNGT.  ETA GRIDDED DATA INDCS STRONG H7-H4 Q-VEC CNVRG BGNG
OVR NE CO AND SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY EVE WITH
ACCOMPANYING LLVL MOISTURE CNVRG.  FEEL ATTM...SPC MAY EXTEND ITS
MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISKS FTHR S AND SLIGHTLY WEST INTO OUR CWA AS
CAPE VALUES TO 4000 J AND MORE FAVORABLE WND PROFILES DVLP LTR TDA.
INCRNG MID AND UPR LVL WNDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LARGEST HELICITY
INCREASES OVR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH ...AS SFC LOW DEEPENS MORE OVR WRN
KS BY EVE...WNDS SHOULD BACK AT THE SFC...GIVING MORE LLVL CYCLONIC
TURNING....SPCLY NERN COUNTIES. ATTM WILL WEIGHT HIER POPS TNGT
ACROSS NE COUNTIES AND CALL FOR SOME STMS SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AS IT
JUST IS A MATTER OF TM BEFORE OTHER WATCHES ARE ISSUED.

IN THE OUT PERIODS...MODELS CONT TO FLIP FLOP ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING XPCD BEHIND THE FNT.  LTST ETA AND SPCLY THE NGM NOW INDC
HI TEMPS RECOVERING QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS THE FNT BEGINS TO WASH OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  ATTM...WILL LKLY GO WITH TEMPS 1 CAT LWR THAN
THIS MORNINGS FWC...MNLY DUE XPCD NRLY SFC WNDS BEHIND THE FNT AND
GROUNDS THAT WILL LKLY BE MOISTENED AGN BY ADDITIONAL RNFL TNGT.
WITH GD MID AND UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE XPCD ON MONDAY...SEE NO REASON
FOR POPS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT.  WILL LEAVE POPS OUT ON TUE GVN
THAT ITS 4TH PD AND SEE LTL FORCING TO RESULT IN PRECIP ATTM.
HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD RECOVER CLSR TO FWC HIGHS.  SEE CCF PTN FOR
POP AND TEMP DETAILS.

GLD 61/88/63/93 500    HLC 67/92/69/95 610
CBK 63/89/66/94 5-0    MCK 64/89/67/92 610
TRB 63/91/64/95 400    ITR 59/87/62/91 400

VJN

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-050520-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT (614 PM CDT) SUN AUG 4 1996

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS UNTIL 11 PM MDT (MIDNIGHT CDT)...

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...AREAS EAST OF A TRIBUNE TO HOXIE LINE CAN
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 9 PM MDT (10
PM CDT). UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...HAIL TO ONE INCH
HAS BEEN REPORTED.

LATER TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.

AT SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING STORM...TOWERING THUNDERHEADS...DARKENING
SKIES...LIGHTNING AND INCREASING WINDS...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
TUNE IN NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

VOJTESAK

NEZ079>081-050120-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
617 PM MDT (717 PM CDT) SUN AUG 4 1996

...TORNADO WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 1 AM MDT (2 AM
CDT)...

THIS REPLACES THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN TO MOVE IN FROM COLORADO THIS
EVENING. BY THE TIME YOU SEE STORMS APPROACHING...YOU SHOULD KNOW
WHAT TO DO IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS THIS EVENING...CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE SKY.

JJK