Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT (312 PM CDT) MON JUL 15 1996

SHRT TERM DISCUSSION:  LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE MCS FORMATION ACROSS NRN
PTN OF THE CWA IS THE MN CHALLENGE TNGT.  PREFER TDAS ETA THRU 24
HRS...BUT NO GRIDDED DATA WAS AVAILABLE FM THIS MODEL ATTM.
HWVR...ETA AFOS GRAPHICS THRU TNGT INDC ETA TO BE THE ONLY MODEL
FAIRLY CNSTNT WITH HANDLING OF SHRT WV CURRENTLY INDCD NEAR WHERE
WY...UTAH AND CO MEET. ETA CONTS TREND OF PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF
TAKING THIS SHRT WV ACROSS THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA.  WITH INCRNG
DWPNTS THIS EVE ACROSS THE CWA AS SFC WNDS BECOME SE AHEAD OF DVLPG
LEE-SIDE SFC TROF...FEEL TSTM DVLPMT IS A GD BET...SPCLY N UNDER
UPR DYNAMICS.  HV WEIGHTED HIER POPS N ACCORDINGLY.

CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 AND SFC-3KM HELICITIES OF ABT 200 FM LBF
MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING...STRONGLY HINT AT SVR TSTMS TNGT.
ALTHOUGH...INITIAL DVLPMT MAY BE SUPERCELL...DEVELOPING LLJT
AND STRONG DRCTNL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM SUGGEST MCS...WITH
POSSIBLE BOW ECHO EVOLUTION...SPCLY FOR NE COUNTIES.  H7 +10 TO
+12 THERMAL RIBBON INDCS A NW-SE MOTION OF SVR STMS AND COMPLEX.

OTRW...TRIED TO TM CLDS AND WNDS TNGT WITH ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF
TSTMS AND LEE-SIDE TROF.  OTRW...ACCEPTED FWC LOWS.  ATTM...FEEL FOG
IS NOT LKLY AS SFC WNDS SHOULD GAIN A WRLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE
COMPLEX.  SEE CCF PTN FOR DETAILS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  NO ETA DATA BEYOND 24 HRS AND ONLY HAD NGM
GRIDDED DATA TO LOOK AT.  SEEMS MAIN PROBLEM IS FOLLOWING AND
TIMING OF EACH S/WV IN FLOW ALF. THE MORE ZONAL FCST PATTERN LEAVES
THE HI PLAINS OPEN FOR CONVECTION.  NGM/AVN SIMILAR WITH LEE-SIDE
TROF OVR FA BUT DIFFER ON UPPER LVL FEATURES THRU TUESDAY NGT.  NGM
STILL TRYING TO BRING MORE ENERGY IN FROM THE SW LATER TUE WITH
500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW OVR HI PLAINS.  VVELS NOT VRY IMPRESSIVE BUT
RISING MOTION OVR LEE TROF...STRONG SFC HEATING AND WEAK
PERTUBATIONS ALF SHOULD GENERATE WIDELY SCT TO SCT TSTMS.
COULD BE MORE OF A NOCTURNAL EVENT JUST E OF CWA DEPENDING ON
TIMING.  THCKNSS VALUES AND 850 TEMPS POINT TO VRY WARM DAYS AHEAD.

GLD  063/093/063/094 412    HLC 068/094/068/096 4-2
CBK  065/094/064/094 412    MCK 066/093/066/095 5-2
TRB " 064/095/064/095 312    ITR 063/091/061/093 412

VJN/KPL

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160550-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT (650 PM CDT) MON JUL 15 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT (MIDNIGHT MDT)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. BE
READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160550-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MDT (750 PM CDT) MON JUL 15 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT (MIDNIGHT MDT)
FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.  DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

REMEMBER A TORNADO WATCH MEAN TORNADOS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBL<E.  IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM CELLER.

JENNER

COZ092-091-090-NEZ079-080-081-160400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
904 PM MDT (1004 PM CDT) MON JUL 15 1996

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN COLORADO HAS EXPIRED...
...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING DUNDY...
HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THESE AREAS AND NO LONGER
POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SKIPPERj