Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT (336 PM CDT) SAT JUL 13 1996

...TSTMS AND AMOUNT OF RAIN IS MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FCST...

MAIN CONCERN FOR CWA IS THIS EVE AND TONIGHT.  CONVECTION FIRING
UP OVR WY AND CO FOOTHILLS ATTM DUE TO AFTN HEATING AND UPSLOP FLOW.
STRONG SHORTWAVE INDICATED MOVG INTO NE WY AND HI PLAINS WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE ACTIVITY NW OF FA THIS AFTN.  ADAPS ALREADY SHOWING BOUYANT
AMS OVR MUCH OF REGN THIS AFTN WITH NO CAP.  TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
(WHICH BOTH THE NGM/ETA VRY SIMILAR ON)...CONVERGENCE OF Q-VECTORS
IN THE 700-300 LAYERS AND STRONG LOW LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
TSTMS WL MOVE OVR FA BY 00Z.  FOLLOWING THE THETA-E RDG OVR THE HI
PLAINS WOULD PUT SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS IN FAVORED TSTM AREAS.
LOOKING AT FZL AND WBZ FROM MORNING SOUNDINGS...HVY RAIN AND HAIL
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ETA/NGM CONVECTIVE PCPN FIELDS AND UVVS OVR THE FA POINT TO ACTIVE
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UP TIL 12Z SUNDAY...THEN DESCENDING
MOTION FCST.  UPSLOP FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY BUT FEEL SUBSIDENCE
AND MIXING WL DIMINISH CLOUD COVER BY AFTN OVR MOST AREAS.  NGM
TIME-HGT CROSS XCTNS SHOWS MID LVL MSTR TO STAY OVR CWA THRU THE DAY
SUNDAY.  PREFER ETA MDL IN DRYING OUT AMS SUN/SUN NGT WITH BUILDING
HGTS ALFT.  REST OF FCST LOOKS FAIR WITH WARMING TEMPS.

GLD 059/080/058/092 810   HLC 063/080/061/092 820
CBK 060/079/058/092 810   MCK 060/079/059/092 810
TRB 059/081/057/094 7-0   ITR 056/080/057/091 7-0

KPL

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COZ090>092-140120-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT SAT JUL 13 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR YUMA... KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...

STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

EXPECT LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

DURING A TORNADO WATCH...BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR TO A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED OR IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

AT SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING STORM...TOWERING THUNDERHEADS...DARKENING
SKIES...LIGHTNING AND INCREASING WINDS...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.

VjOJTESAK

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