Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT (249 PM CDT) FRI JUN 21 1996

SHRT TERM:  TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA ARE MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT.  THE ETA FINALLY SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD GRASP OF THE SFC SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH PERIOD 1.

ATTM BELIEVE WINDS SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW GOOD
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVRG ACROSS TTHE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BY 06Z.
IN ADDITION...A SECOND UPPER LVL IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS PLACES OUR CWA IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE ASSOCIATED JETLET.  SUBSEQUENTLY...WILL GO WITH
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND 20 PERCENT
S.

FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER TSTMS MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA
AND SFC WINDS BECOME MORE ERLY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL
NW KS AND XTRM SW NE COUNTIES AND WILL MENTION IT NEAR THE KS/NE
BORDER FOR YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES AS WIND SHIFT LINE WILL BE ALONG
ERN PTNS OF THESE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE WILL KEEP CLOSE TO FAN LOWS...FWC STILL NOT AVAILABLE FROM
THIS MORNINGS RUN.  SEE CCF FOR DETAILS.  VJN

LONG TERM:  AFT SOME POSSIBLE LOW CLDS/FOG OVR PARTS OF CWA SATURDAY
MORNING...MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER VRY WARM DAY.
TROFFINESS OVR HI PLAINS THRU THE DAY AND ITS LOOKING LIKE NW
KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA WL BE E OF TROF AXIS.  E/SE WINDS WL BRING
ADDITIONAL MSTR TO THE AREA.  BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO BE IN
THE EVE WEHN SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND POS VORTICITY
ADVECTION RIDES AHEAD OF IT.  UPWARD VVELS...THETA-E RIDGE AND
IMPRESSIVE DIR SHEAR PROFILE INDICATED ON ETA GRIDDED DATA FOR NE
PARTS OF CWA ON SATURDAY.  GRIDDED DATA ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUING
UNSTALBE AMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE NGT OVR FAR E
SECTIONS OF FA.

MDLS SHOW MUCH MORE STABLE AMS OVR HI PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS TROF
AND HI MSTR MOVES FURTHER E.  FAN TEMPS AND POPS GUIDANCE ACCEPTED
NXT FEW PERIODS.  KPL

GLD 059/090/060/090 433    HLC 065/092/064/092 434
CBK 062/091/062/091 433    MCK 062/088/062/090 435
TRB 060/093/061/094 222    ITR 057/089/058/090 432

VJN/KPL
;

COZ090>092-220210-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
104 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES OF COLORADO UNTIL 8 PM MDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES
OF COLORADO THROUGH 8 PM MDT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH
THIS TIME.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. THE KEY TO SURVIVAL IS ADVANCED PLANNING.
YOU SHOULD KNOW WHERE THE SAFEST AREAS OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ARE...SUCH AS INTERIOR ROOMS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.
"
VJN