Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MDT (226 PM CDT) TUE SEP 17 1996

...FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...

A SERIES OF STRONG VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN GREAT BASIN
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS WITH THIS
TROUGH AND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK ENTRENCHED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WET EPISODES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH PACKAGE.

BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT IS PROGGED FOR CO COUNTIES AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FOG CLEARING LINE.
AS NEXT WAVE OF DYNAMICS SWINGS IN OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAINS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG CO/KS BORDERS WHERE 850/700 MB
THETA-E RIDGES ARE IN PLACE. AIR IS SOMEWHAT DRY ABOVE INVERSION AS
EVIDENCED BY DNR AND DDC SOUNDINGS AT 12Z...BUT AS MOISTURE MOVES IN
THIS DRY AIR SHOULD SERVE TO DESTABALIZE THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION. THEREFORE...SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT ERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

INDIVIDUAL TIMING OF WAVES BY MODELS IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IN
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS...BUT SUGGESTIONS FROM WATER VAPOR INDICATE
THAT WE MAY GET A BREAK FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
STRONGER WAVE COMES IN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH THE
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. QPF IN DC GOING
WITH 3+ INCHES FOR EXTREME SERN FA AND THIS MAY BE REASONABLE.

AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

WILL WAIT ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE SUGGESTING FFA FOR ERN ZNS FOR
WED NIGHT. FFG RUNNING AROUND 3 INCHES FOR MOST OF FA ATTM.

FWC TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED THOUGH UNDERCUT SOMEWHAT FOR THURSDAY
AS ETA SUGGESTS COOLER AIR THAN NGM/AVN AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.

GLD 052/063/046/063 7574  HLC 057/063/055/065 7776
CBK 054/063/048/065 7574  MCK 054/061/049/063 7774
TRB 056/069/052/068 6474  ITR 047/066/047/062 7563

BARKER

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-180600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT (1227 PM CDT) TUE SEP 17 1996

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SYNOPSIS:
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING...THUS REDUCING THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.   THEREFORE...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

SKIPPER

COZ090>092-172255-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 1996

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH
9 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH 9 PM.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES.

THE KEY TO SURVIVAL IS ADVANCED PLANNING.  YOU SHOULD KNOW WHERE
THE SAFEST AREAS OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ARE...SUCH AS INTERIOR
ROOMS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

BARKER