Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST FRI SEP 6 1996

MODELS AND RADAR INDICATE THAT WE HAVE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF AN
ACTIVE DAY AS THE STORMS ON RADAR PICK UP MORE ENERGY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING.  BEST DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EXTREME NORTH PORTION OF CWA.  SEVERAL VORT LOBES IN FRONT OF THE
VORT CENTER APPROACHING SW UT WILL FAVOR NE-SW LINES OF
THUNDERSHOWERS TO FORM AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.  WITH THE SIZE...
SPEED AND BEST SUPPORT I AM NOT EXPECTING LARGE AMOUNTS TO OCCUR AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION THUS FLASH FLOODING POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME IS
A QUESTION BUT NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  WITH THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT
BORDERLINE AND THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
MAY FORM THAT MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS LATER. I EXPECT THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE.  SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SUPPORT DOES SOMEWHAT DROP THROUGH THE DAY BUT
OVERALL THE TSTM AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP US BUSY.

MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS A INCREASE IN
THE POPS IN THE WEST AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS LOWER@ED FOR
TODAY.

FLG 5342 INW 312-

HP

AZZ005-006-061730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 AM MST FRI SEP 6 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE
SOUTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON...

AT 825 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE GRAND CANYON
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR SELIGMAN.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL AND ARE MOVING TO
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY HIKERS AND
TOURISTS VISITING THE GRAND CANYON...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND SEEK SHELTER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

WALLINGFORD