Tornado Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
300 AM CDT SUN APR 14 1996

MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT MOVG SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN SW KS INTO SW MO BY
00Z MON...THEN EJECTG SYS NE INTO WI BY 00Z TUE.  GIVEN STGST PRES
FALLS FM S CNTRL KS INTO SW MO AND UPR JET PROGS...MOVMT LOOKS ON
TRACK.  STST DYNAMICS\UVV SLATED FOR 12-24HR TIME FRAME AS SHRTWV
TROF ROTATG ARND UPR SYS MOVS THRU CWA.

OVRALL...LOOKS LIKE WDSPRD R- SETTG UP TDA WITH EMBEDDED CNVTVN...
THEN WRAP ARND AFFCTG CWA TNGT AS SYS EJECTS TO NE.  CURRENT 88D
INDCG TRW DVLPG IN ERN KS ALG NOSE OF LLJ.  LLJ PROGGED TO MOV EWD BY
18Z INTO CNTRL MO...E CNTRL MO BY 00Z MON.  THREAT OF ELEVATED CNVTVN
TO MNLY BE THIS AM WITH PSBLTY OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WNDS...WITH
MAIN THREAT OF SVR RMNG JUST S OF CWA.

PROBLEM TNGT WL BE THREAT OF SNOW AS COLD AIR WRAPS ARND LOW WITH 850
TEMPS OF -2 TO -4 MOVG INTO CWA.  GUIDANCE TEMPS OF 35-40 APR LTL HI
,GIVEN EVAP COOLG.  XPC WET SNOW MNLY NW OF A MACON TO BUTLER LINE LATE
SUN NGT...LTL IF ANY ACCUMLN.

MCI 049/033 ++

DJV

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 14 1996

...RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...WET SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

FORECAST...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A MACON TO
BUTLER LINE.

DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING...THEN INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.  THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE AS THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
AS COLDER AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO WET SNOW. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DB

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 14 1996

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

FORECAST...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WARRENSBURG TO
BOONVILLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE....WERE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
WARRENSBURG. THUNDERSTORMS... SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RISK AREA THROUGH 800 PM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE RISK AREA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING...THEN INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.  THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WARRENSBURG
TO BOONVILLE.

THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF AN@Y ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DB