Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
255 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

THINGS A LTL MORE TRANQUIL OVR CWA THIS AM...
SFC BNDRY FTHR S AT 07Z OVR XTRM SE KS AND SRN MO. NOT MUCH PROFILER
DATA AVBL BUT APPRS THAT LO LVL JET STILL SOMEWHAT OF A PLAYER THIS AM.
88-D DATA INDICATING SCT RW'S DVLPG ALG H8 WRM FNTL BNDRY OVR XTRM NE
KS AND NW MO. CAPES IN THIS AREA APPR TO BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO SOME
THUNDER PSBL THIS AM HOWEVER WITH DECENT HGHT RISES AT H5 LAST NITE
POINTS TO WARMING ALF AND CAPPING...NOT CONCERNED WITH SGFNT CNVTN
DVLPG THIS AM. 88-D CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING STORM TOPS BET 17K-22K FT.
GRIDDED DATA SHWS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z THEN DECRSG THETA-E
VALUES LTR THIS AM AS WEAK SFC RDG PUNCHES INTO CWA FM NW. ATTM WOULD
LIKE TO GO WITH 40 PERCENT POP FOR SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AM ALG AND N
OF STJ MACON LN AND 30 PERCENT POP TDY TO S OF LN. MODELS ALL HINT AT
RAINFREE CONDITIONS TNT WITH LITE NE FLOW THRU BNDRY LYR THEN BRING
MSTR NWRD AGN MON AND MON NITE AS SFC RDG RETREATS TO NE AND MONSOONAL
TYPE SHRT WV MVS INTO SRN PLNS FM SW. THINKING DRY FOR ALL ZNS TNT THEN
REINTRODUCING 30 PERCENT POPS FOR MON AND MON NITE. BASED ON NO SGFNT
CHNG IN AIR MASS PERSISTANCE LKS LIKE A GOOD TEMP FCST AND FWC/FAN IN
THAT NEIGHBORHOOD.

MCI 70/53 21

BODNER

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING...

FORECAST...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM THE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY EARLY THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OF THE GROUND WERE HELPING TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

MJM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING...

FORECAST...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM THE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY EARLY THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OF THE GROUND WERE HELPING TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

MJM